Russia’s constitutional referendum, to be held on an undetermined date, will likely solidify President Vladimir Putin’s ability to run for re-election in 2024. President Putin on 20 January 2020 proposed a set of constitutional amendments, including one which effectively resets Putin’s presidential term count to zero allowing him to serve as president for up to 12 more years. The Russian Parliament proceeded to approve the amendments. Hours after the State Duma approved the amendment’s final reading, 160 out of the 164 members of the Federation Council approved the bill.
Democratic Republic of the Congo President Felix Tshisekedi will very likely maintain the presidency through 2020. President Tshisekedi is the fifth president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the first democratically elected president to experience a peaceful transition of power. Tshisekedi is unlikely to be removed from office by the start of 2021 as the DRC’s constitutional courts have demonstrated their support for the president and the traditionally ruling party has little incentive to remove him.
On September 30, 2019, Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra dissolved the country’s Congress and called for a reelection after the legislative body repeatedly blocked both his calls for a congressional election and anti-corruption efforts. Peru’s newly elected Congress will unlikely have a major impact on legislation change in Peru; and, with no ruling political party and less support for the Popular Force, it is likely that there will not be a majority party in Congress following the 2021 general election.
The infected Syrian population will very likely multiply at an extreme rate, and Syria’s poor healthcare system will very likely result in a higher fatality rate than other countries, by April 01. Syria’s ongoing nine-year civil war has crippled the country’s medical facilities and hospitals, and Syrian authorities are ill-equipped to handle the impending COVID-19 crisis.
Russia is unlikely to utilize economic means to exert influence or affect Estonian sovereignty due to Estonia’s strong trade partnerships with the European Union and NATO and high degree of energy independence. Russia will likely pursue non-economic options if determined to affect Estonian sovereignty due to Moscow’s lack of economic leverage on Tallinn.
Iran has recently become an epicenter of the COVID-19, coronavirus, outbreak with multiple members of state leadership testing positive for the disease.
Citizens of Hong Kong, since late March 2019, have taken to the streets protesting a Beijing-backed extradition bill which would allow criminals from Hong Kong to be transferred to mainland China for prosecution.
US adversaries such as China, Russia and Iran are developing and expanding their arsenal of space-driven weaponry, military reconnaissance, and counter-space capabilities.
China’s implementation of a new cybersecurity law will likely affect foreign businesses privacy of their own data. Known as the Multilevel Protection Scheme (MLPS 2.0), this law requires all companies to abide by certain requirements to secure their networks, which could leave foreign companies vulnerable to Chinese inspection.
The targeted killing of General Qassem Soleimani will likely spur a series of global soft target attacks against Americans abroad, as well as U.S. and allied interests within the next 30 days. The U.S. strike against Iran’s number one military leader has increased hostility between the two nations. Tehran threatened retaliation against the United States.
Serbia and Kosovo are unlikely to reach a comprehensive normalization agreement before January 2020. Despite EU pressure, relations between Serbia and Kosovo remains extremely tense and both parties have demonstrated a reluctance to compromise to repair the relationship between the two countries.
Russia is very likely to continue exerting political and military influence through defense presence in the Central African Republic in an effort to gain political leverage in Africa. Russia has made bilateral military deals with over 20 countries in Africa, however the Central African Republic has placed Russian advisers within their government including President Touadera’s national security advisory.
Jeanine Anez will unlikely be the next Bolivian president due to remaining support for Evo Morales.
On November 10, President Morales resigned due to military leaders and police officials demanding his withdrawal. In addition to President Morales, the top four officials in the chain of succession also resigned, leaving the presidency to Second Vice President of the Senate Jeanine Anez until January 22.
In 2015, China and Pakistan agreed to the Chinese-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a Chinese financed venture which seeks to construct infrastructure, energy, and telecommunications projects throughout Pakistan. This agreement is part of China’s larger Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that China is currently invested in throughout Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.
The Iraqi public on Friday, October 25 renewed their anti-government protests against corruption and Iranian involvement in Iraqi politics. The Iranian-backed Hashd al-Shabbi (PMF) is very likely involved in subduing Iraqi anti-government protests in an effort to maintain leverage on the Iraqi government.
Alberto Fernandez will likely win the October 27 Argentine election due to high voter confidence and optimistic view of the candidate’s economic policies.
Russia likely views Turkey’s Spring Peace Operation as an opportunity to establish a long-term presence in Syria. Russia will likely utilize facilitation of dialogue between the Syrian government, and Turkey, and the Kurds as means to expand influence in the Middle East.
