Global Leadership 2021: Russian Constitutional Referendum Likely to Solidify President Putin’s 2024 Re-Election Bid
Russia’s constitutional referendum, to be held on an undetermined date, will likely solidify President Vladimir Putin’s ability to run for re-election in 2024. President Putin on 20 January 2020 proposed a set of constitutional amendments, including one which effectively resets Putin’s presidential term count to zero allowing him to serve as president for up to 12 more years. [i] The Russian Parliament proceeded to approve the changes. Hours after the State Duma approved the amendment’s final reading, 160 out of the 164 members of the Federation Council approved the bill. [ii]
President Putin originally scheduled a public referendum for April 22 – which has now been pushed forward due to COVID-19 – however, the referendum has no legal purpose as the 2/3 legislative assembly approval required for the implementation of the amendments was reached on March 12. [iii]
Putin has stated at least half of Russian voters must approve the bill through a referendum before he will implement the amendments. [iv, v]
In a January 2020 poll, 72 percent of Russians noted they would vote in favor of the constitutional amendments. [vi]
The constitutional referendum will also serve as a litmus test for Putin’s support in Russia. Shortly after the announcement, Russians began demonstrations against the proposal shortly after Putin’s announcement. Protests would likely have continued if not for COVID-19 lockdown. Many voters believe their vote in the referendum will not matter and it is likely to pass.
The announcement for the referendum occurred on January 25, 2020. The first protest occurred on February 1, 2020 in which approximately 10,000 persons took part. Additionally, by March 16, 2020, more than 18,000 Russians signed a petition denouncing the reform as “politically and ethically unacceptable”. However, in-person protests in Moscow are currently unachievable due to the COVID-19 lockdown. [vii]
Since the announcement, approval ratings have been in flux, but as of March 25, the Levada center projects 43 percent to vote in favor, 37.5 percent to vote against, and 19.5 percent undecided. [viii]
The passage of the constitutional referendum will very likely result in President Putin’s re-election to in 2024. President Putin will likely further isolate Russia from the West and pursue an authoritarian style leadership. Russia identifies the United States, European Union, and NATO as threats aimed to weaken the state after years of the President’s futile attempts to “cooperate”. [ix] President Putin is likely to seek changes that strengthen the Presidency and establish nationalistic policies that prioritize Russian law over international norms. [x]
Putin has stated, “I see that the people, or at least the majority of our society, are waiting for my personal assessments and decisions on key matters of the development of the Russian state, both now and after 2024.” He explained that the new constitution will be designed “for a longer historical term, at least 30 to 50 years.” [xi]
Russian lawmaker Aleksandr Khinshtein and many of his colleagues agree this constitutional change is necessary for President Putin to ensure regional stability against foreign and domestic threats, however do not consider the elimination of term limits to be a continuing provision for future leaders. [xii]
Russia has been steadily increasing their global influence by fostering close geopolitical ties through provisions of trade, defense, and energy. President Putin has worked to maintain international partnerships through building relationships with authoritative figures such as China’s Xi Jinping, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, and Iran’s Hassan Rouhani. [xiii]
Sources
[i]. Roth, Andrew. “Putin backs proposal allowing him to remain in power in Russia beyond 2024.” The Guardian. 10 March 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/vladimir-putin-amendment-power-russia-2024.
[ii]. Radio Free Europe. “Russia’s State Duma Approves Bill Allowing Putin to Run for New Term.” VOA News. 11 March 2020. https://www.voanews.com/europe/russias-state-duma-approves-bill-allowing-putin-run-new-term.
[iii]. Noble, Ben. “Coronavirus derails Russia’s constitutional reform vote – what this means for Vladimir Putin.” The Conversation. 24 March 2020. http://theconversation.com/coronavirus-derails-russias-constitutional-reform-vote-what-this-means-for-vladimir-putin-134418.
[iv]. Roth, Andrew. “Putin backs proposal allowing him to remain in power in Russia beyond 2024.” The Guardian. 10 March 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/vladimir-putin-amendment-power-russia-2024.
[v]. Radio Free Europe “Russia’s State Duma Approves Bill Allowing Putin to Run for New Term.” VOA News. 11 March 2020. https://www.voanews.com/europe/russias-state-duma-approves-bill-allowing-putin-run-new-term.
[vi]. Statista Research Department. “Intention of Russians to vote in the Constitutional referendum 2020.” Statista. 25 February 2020. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1095208/russia-constitutional-referendum-voting-intention/.
[vii]. Al Jazeera. “Russian Court Backs Move to Let Putin Stay in Power.” Russia News | Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera, March 16, 2020. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/russian-court-backs-move-putin-stay-power-200316153551933.html.
[viii]. “Общероссийское Голосование По Поправкам в Конституцию.” Общероссийское голосование по поправкам в Конституцию –, March 29, 2020. https://www.levada.ru/2020/03/27/obshherossijskoe-golosovanie-po-popravkam-v-konstitutsiyu/.
[ix]. Кузнецова, Евгения. “Голосование По Конституции Станет ‘Референдумом’ о Новом Сроке Путина.” РБК, March 10, 2020. https://www.rbc.ru/politics/10/03/2020/5e679af19a79477f4ca7613d.
