All in Russia
We assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely attempt to remove opposition groups in Belarus to secure Lukashenko’s absolute power. It is unlikely that the Russian President will allow an opposition-led regime change within Belarus as Putin seeks to further protect the legitimacy of Belarus’s 26-year-old withstanding dictatorship.
We assess that the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and the Kremlin’s continuous denial of involvement will continue to agitate Navalny’s supporters and further national discontent with the Putin regime.
Russia’s constitutional referendum, to be held on an undetermined date, will likely solidify President Vladimir Putin’s ability to run for re-election in 2024. President Putin on 20 January 2020 proposed a set of constitutional amendments, including one which effectively resets Putin’s presidential term count to zero allowing him to serve as president for up to 12 more years. The Russian Parliament proceeded to approve the amendments. Hours after the State Duma approved the amendment’s final reading, 160 out of the 164 members of the Federation Council approved the bill.
Russia is unlikely to utilize economic means to exert influence or affect Estonian sovereignty due to Estonia’s strong trade partnerships with the European Union and NATO and high degree of energy independence. Russia will likely pursue non-economic options if determined to affect Estonian sovereignty due to Moscow’s lack of economic leverage on Tallinn.
US adversaries such as China, Russia and Iran are developing and expanding their arsenal of space-driven weaponry, military reconnaissance, and counter-space capabilities.
Russia is very likely to continue exerting political and military influence through defense presence in the Central African Republic in an effort to gain political leverage in Africa. Russia has made bilateral military deals with over 20 countries in Africa, however the Central African Republic has placed Russian advisers within their government including President Touadera’s national security advisory.
Russia likely views Turkey’s Spring Peace Operation as an opportunity to establish a long-term presence in Syria. Russia will likely utilize facilitation of dialogue between the Syrian government, and Turkey, and the Kurds as means to expand influence in the Middle East.
Russia will likely utilize Turkey’s offensive on Syrian territory by attempting to initiate and mediate talks between Turkey, the Syrian government, and the Syrian Kurds as a way to gain geopolitical influence in the Middle East.
The Russian-Ukrainian prisoner exchange on September 7 will likely set the stage for future peace talks in an effort to end the war in Donbass.
Moscow and Kiev will likely participate in peace talks before the end of 2019 as President Putin and President Zelensky have recently expressed willingness and made tangible strides to normalize relations.
Russian suspension of the INF Treaty suggests Russia is likely to focus on the development of nuclear capable missile systems in order to limit NATO reactions to recent Russian territorial acquisitions.
Russia’s sales of the S-400 defense system are likely to pose a strategic threat to the United States and its allies because the respective sales expand economic and trade opportunities for Russia, which is likely to solidify Russia’s relations with various countries while undermining relations with the United States.
