Russia: Poisoning of Prominent Opposition Leader Likely to Weaken Relations with the West
Background: On August 20, 2020, Prominent Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was poisoned with Novichok, an illegal chemical nerve agent, which left his body comatose until September 7 when he awoke in a Berlin hospital. The opposition leader has become an imminent threat to Putin’s power by investigating corruption in the Kremlin, organizing anti-Putin protests, and running for public office. Navalny was arrested multiple times for organizing government protests, and in July 2020 large court fines forced him to shut down his Anti-Corruption Foundation, which investigated and exposed high-ranking Russian government officials. [i, ii, iii, iv, v]
We assess it is highly likely that the Kremlin poisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny. The German government confirmed that the Soviet-era nerve agent Novichok was in Navalny’s system. Russia invented and has access to this specific nerve agent. [vi]
“There’s no doubt whatsoever” that the Russian government and intelligence agencies poisoned Navalny, and that Russian intelligence services have been doing this for decades, according to the former CIA chief of Russia operations. [vii]
International observers have suspected Russian operatives of poisoning ‘enemies of the state’ before. The UK in 2018 suspected two Russian operatives of using Novichok on a former Russian spy and his daughter in Salisbury. [viii]
Many other critics of Putin have died or became seriously ill in suspicious circumstances. An unknown assailant in 2015 shot and killed former Deputy Prime Minister under Yeltsin, Boris Nemtsov. Former FSB agent Alexander Litvinenko in 2006 died from an apparent poisoning. [ix] Political opposition leader Vladimir Kara-Murza, once in 2015 and again in 2017, fell violently ill with poisoning symptoms. [x]
We assess that the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and the Kremlin’s continuous denial of involvement will continue to agitate Navalny’s supporters and further national discontent with the Putin regime. The Kremlin rejects claims of any involvement in an assassination attempt of Navalny and refuses to begin an investigation into the posioning, signaling the Russian government’s impunity as attacks against Kremlin critics continue.
“In 2020, poisoning Navalny with Novichok is exactly the same as leaving an autograph at the scene of the crime,” tweeted Leonid Volkov, Navalny’s chief of staff. Volkov included an image of President Vladimir Putin’s signature, and his tweet has since been deleted. [xi]
“Before our critics will predictably promote ‘Russia did it’ narrative I once again appeal to their common sense. WHY would we do it? And in such a clumsy inconclusive way?,” tweeted Dmitry Polyanskiy, first deputy permanent representative of Russia to the UN, in late August. Social media exchanges between political leaders such as Volkov and Polyanskiy demonstrate the agitation on both sides of the conflict. [xii]
Public figures such as Sergei Shnurov, member of the center-right Growth Party, assert that their prior indifference towards Navalny has turned into active support for him and his anti-corruption activists. [xiii]
We assess that Russia’s inability to conduct a transparent investigation into the poisoning of opposition leader Navalny will prevent NATO, the European Union, and Germany from issuing a formal condemnation against the Russian state. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) may be requested to conduct an investigation with German doctors to validate the results of Navalny’s medical assessment. However, due to the location of the attack being conducted on Russian soil, any internal OPCW investigations mandate the approval of Russian authorities. [xiv] European nations have threatened substantial sanctions, alongside Germany’s threat to withdraw from the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, in hopes that Russia submits to their demand for an impartial internal investigation. [xv, xvi] We further assess with high likelihood that Russia’s failure to submit to an investigation under the guidelines of the OPCW will not result in the termination of the German-Russian gas pipeline project.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel in early September threatened to terminate the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a 1,230 kilometer natural gas pipeline project connected under the Baltic Sea between Germany and Russia - expected to transfer an additional 55 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually. Terminating this nearly complete project would be against EU law and cost Germany multi-billions of dollars in damage claims. [xvii]
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg publicly confirmed President Putin’s responsibility for the attack and expects to take counter actions similar to those taken after the poisonings of two former Russian spies in 2018 which resulted in the expulsion of seven Russian Diplomats. NATO currently maintains 20 Russian diplomats serving at their mission. Stoltenberg on September 4 called on Russia to “fully cooperate with the OPCW for an impartial, internal investigation, those responsible for the attack must be held accountable and brought to justice.” [xvii]
The European Union’s foreign minister has released a formal statement condemning Russia’s use of Novichik against Navalny. The Baltic States, alongside Poland, are strong advocates for issuing stricter sanctions that target Russia’s chain of command and support the suspension of Nord Stream 2. The EU has been pushed to consider alternative transit pipelines and suppliers. [xviii]
Sources
[i] Dixon, Robyn. “Alexei Navalny Was Once a Mere Annoyance to the Kremlin. His Poisoning Shows How Much That Has Changed.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 12 Sept. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/alexei-navalny-was-once-a-mere-annoyance-to-the-kremlin-his-poisoning-shows-how-much-that-has-changed/2020/09/11/fef769c8-f37e-11ea-8025-5d3489768ac8_story.html.
[ii] Corder, Mike. “Chemical Weapons Watchdog Adds Novichok to Banned List.” AP NEWS, Associated Press, 27 Nov. 2019, apnews.com/879335e4512447b0aaca7e845e47be97.
[iii] BBC. “Alexei Navalny: Russia Opposition Leader Poisoned with Novichok - Germany.” BBC News, BBC, 2 Sept. 2020, www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54002880.
[iv] Kelly, Laura. “NATO Calls for International Response to Navalny Poisoning.” TheHill, The Hill, 4 Sept. 2020, thehill.com/policy/international/515105-nato-calls-for-international-response-to-navalny-poisoning.
[v] Madeline Roache, “Alexei Navalny Has Been Confirmed Poisoned by the Russian Nerve Agent Novichok. What Happens Now?,” TIME, 4 September 2020, https://time.com/5886151/alexei-navalny-poisoning-allegations/
[vi] BBC “Navalny 'poisoned': What are Novichok agents and what do they do?” BBC. 2 September 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43377698
[vii] Chappel, Bill. “'No Doubt' That Navalny Poisoning Was Russian Operation, Former CIA Russia Chief Says.” NPR. 3 September 2020. https://www.npr.org/2020/09/03/909243842/no-doubt-that-navalny-poisoning-was-russian-operation-former-cia-russia-chief-sa
[viii] BBC. “Russian spy poisoning: What we know so far.” BBC. 8 October 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43315636
[ix] Filipov, David. “Here are 10 critics of Vladimir Putin who died violently or in suspicious ways.” The Washington Post. 23 March 2017. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/03/23/here-are-ten-critics-of-vladimir-putin-who-died-violently-or-in-suspicious-ways/
[x] AP. “Toxic tea: Multiple Russians hit by suspected poisonings.” AP. 20 August 2020. https://apnews.com/f0d28f418226aa064523081fc38b2b74
[xi] Nathan Hodge, “Navanly’s Novichok poisoning poses questions for Russia. The world is unlikely to get answers,” CNN, 3 September 2020,
[xii] Ibid
