The right-wing coalition is unlikely to oppose continuing military and economic support to Ukraine
In response to the large number of refugees fleeing dangerous conditions in Venezuela, Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas has upgraded Venezuelan refugees to Temporary Protected Status (TPS) until September 2022. This status allows refugees who have been continuously living in the United States since March 8, 2021 the ability to live and work in the country for an extended period of time.
China’s recently launched Yaogan-31 satellite trios are highly likely to gather SIGINIT data on naval movements across the globe.
We assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely attempt to remove opposition groups in Belarus to secure Lukashenko’s absolute power. It is unlikely that the Russian President will allow an opposition-led regime change within Belarus as Putin seeks to further protect the legitimacy of Belarus’s 26-year-old withstanding dictatorship.
Taiwanese officials accuse China of threatening the peace after multiple military exercises are conducted in Taiwan’s air defense identification zone during September 2020.
The upcoming Bolivian presidential election, the first since Evo Morales’s resignation, will decide whether Bolivia will elect another member from Morales’s party or turn away Morales and his allies.
We assess that the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and the Kremlin’s continuous denial of involvement will continue to agitate Navalny’s supporters and further national discontent with the Putin regime.
China in June 2020 enacted a national security law in Hong Kong to punish Hong Kong residents and citizens abroad for crimes related to succession, terrorism, subversion, and endangerment to national security.
Russia’s constitutional referendum, to be held on an undetermined date, will likely solidify President Vladimir Putin’s ability to run for re-election in 2024. President Putin on 20 January 2020 proposed a set of constitutional amendments, including one which effectively resets Putin’s presidential term count to zero allowing him to serve as president for up to 12 more years. The Russian Parliament proceeded to approve the amendments. Hours after the State Duma approved the amendment’s final reading, 160 out of the 164 members of the Federation Council approved the bill.
Democratic Republic of the Congo President Felix Tshisekedi will very likely maintain the presidency through 2020. President Tshisekedi is the fifth president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the first democratically elected president to experience a peaceful transition of power. Tshisekedi is unlikely to be removed from office by the start of 2021 as the DRC’s constitutional courts have demonstrated their support for the president and the traditionally ruling party has little incentive to remove him.
On September 30, 2019, Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra dissolved the country’s Congress and called for a reelection after the legislative body repeatedly blocked both his calls for a congressional election and anti-corruption efforts. Peru’s newly elected Congress will unlikely have a major impact on legislation change in Peru; and, with no ruling political party and less support for the Popular Force, it is likely that there will not be a majority party in Congress following the 2021 general election.
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