(U) Lack of ISIS Instigation in Homegrown Violent Extremism in U.S.

(U) Lack of ISIS Instigation in Homegrown Violent Extremism in U.S.

Analysis by Jake Caldwell, Eli Striplin, and Wade Smith

30 April 2025

We assess with moderate confidence that the Islamic State (widely known as ISIS) is not initiating direct contact with individuals within the United States to coordinate terrorist attacks. While acts of “homegrown violent extremism,” a term used by the FBI and US Department of Justice, increasingly threaten citizens in the US and other Western nations, our research suggests that ISIS is likely not currently instigating or instructing these kinds of acts.

Based on the study of five cases of identified domestic extremists in the US since 2019, it is more likely that these individuals are seeking and exposing themselves to Islamic jihadist propaganda on their own, then independently planning “ISIS-inspired” attacks on American targets. These individuals attempt to make contact with, seek support from, and offer support to  ISIS operatives. They then plot, finance, and execute attacks on targets they have deemed as enemies of ISIS and Islam. In some cases, these individuals may also attempt to recruit other individuals within the US. However, our review of these cases shows that concrete communication between these individuals and ISIS representatives is virtually nonexistent, and when it occurs is limited almost solely to ideological discussions. Based on the analysis of the following cases, would-be extremists generally seem to follow a similar pattern: consume propaganda, attempt to make contact with ISIS representatives, and begin planning and financing attacks.

Background: ISIS

ISIS is a radical Sunni Islamic organization originally based in Iraq and Syria, and a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization. ISIS emerged following the US invasion of Iraq and the expanding Syrian civil war. It took control of several major cities in both Iraq and Syria and declared its territory a “caliphate” in 2014. 

Since its inception, ISIS has committed numerous human rights violations, including the execution of prisoners, human trafficking, and genocide against ethnic and religious minorities. The group has become adept at using online propaganda to influence and recruit individuals, producing content that glorifies their actions and calling for Muslims around the world to join in their condemnation of and attacks on the West. 

ISIS has claimed responsibility for attacks against Western targets. Following a series of offensives by a coalition of a multinational military force and local militias, ISIS lost most of its territory in Iraq and Syria by the end of 2017. However, despite widespread losses, the group continued to expand. Several militant Islamic organizations throughout the world pledged allegiance to ISIS before later declaring themselves as proper members. This gave ISIS global reach, with affiliates in Somalia, the Sahel region, and Afghanistan claiming territory and procuring arms to carry out attacks against domestic and international targets since 2020. Despite lacking territorial control, ISIS branches continued to produce propaganda intended for Western audiences. Furthermore, the conflict in Gaza has heightened tensions across the world, as many Muslims express deep frustration over the situation in Palestine. This has led to an increase in global susceptibility to extremist influences.

Case Studies: Homegrown Violent Extremists

ISIS-inspired attacks have been a danger to Western nations since the declaration of the caliphate in 2014. We selected and examined five cases in the United States from 2019 to 2025 of individuals accused or convicted of terrorism-related crimes. 

  • Joseph M. Damon first drew attention from US law enforcement in 2018 after posting ISIS propaganda. He later created his own propaganda and sent it to an FBI agent whom he believed to be an ISIS member. He was arrested in 2019 and charged with attempting to provide material support to ISIS, attempting to commit a hate crime, and possessing firearms in furtherance of a crime of violence. US Dept. of Justice reports indicate that despite Damon’s desire and efforts to contact ISIS, no ISIS members had any direct contact with him. Therefore, Damon’s consumption and dissemination of ISIS propaganda and plotting of an attack were likely not caused by orders from ISIS. Damon’s radicalism and subsequent plots occurred and were orchestrated of his own volition, and while both were influenced by ISIS beliefs and ideals, direct orders were not a factor in his planning. 

  • Muhammad Shahzeb Khan is a Pakistani resident of Canada who was arrested in September 2024 for attempting to provide material support and resources to a designated foreign terrorist organization. He is accused of reposting ISIS propaganda and plotting to assemble a cell of ISIS operatives to attack Jewish centers in New York City on the anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack in Israel. He was arrested while traveling to the US border with the goal of entering the US before the planned attack. Investigators found no evidence of contact with active ISIS members, however, and half of the individuals in his “cell” were undercover law enforcement agents. 

  • Asir Ahmad Tahwedi was arrested in late 2024 for plotting a terrorist attack on the day of the 2024 US presidential election. He had immigrated to the US just over 3 years before his arrest and, similar to other individuals in this case review, willingly sought out and consumed ISIS propaganda. Tahwedi was in direct contact with an individual whom other US investigations identified as an ISIS recruiter, but case reports show no indication that this individual directly or verbally influenced his actions or his involvement with ISIS. Although Tahwedi was in contact with ISIS members, his affiliation with them, consumption of propaganda, and plotting of a terror attack were done on his own.

  • Anas Said was arrested in November 2024 for planning an attack in Houston, TX. He was born in the US before his family moved to Lebanon, and then later returned in 2014. He attempted to travel to join ISIS several times before 2014 and was previously flagged by the FBI for consuming ISIS propaganda. He made contact with an individual known as “The Designer,” who is identified by the DOJ as a known ISIS operative. The Designer sent Said raw ISIS photos and videos to produce propaganda. Said designed and edited numerous pieces for ISIS and distributed them in ISIS chat rooms. He was arrested after researching attack methods and scouting possible locations. After his arrest, he claimed he was motivated by civilian casualties in the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan and by the current Israel-Hamas war. He also said that, if he were released, he would return to Lebanon to join ISIS. Investigations indicated that his direct contact with ISIS was limited to graphic design and material sharing. Although his degree of exposure to/contact with ISIS in Lebanon is unknown, his radicalization in the US was likely self-directed, without significant involvement from ISIS.

  • Shamsud-Din Jabbar carried out a mass shooting and attack on New Year's Eve, 2024, in New Orleans before he was killed by responding police officers. He was born in the US and had served in the US Army. He converted to Islam early in his life; however, he had not been previously identified as a supporter of terrorism, and no one close to him reported any evidence of radicalization (APNews). He pledged allegiance to ISIS in a series of videos posted before the attack. Investigators have found no evidence of collaboration with any other individuals or ISIS members before the attack, and apart from a trip to Egypt in mid-2023, he did not have an identified pattern of suspicious behavior. He is unique among the cases outlined previously in that he both made seemingly no effort to contact ISIS members, and he was the only one who successfully carried out his planned attack. 

Credit: UM COSA

Analysis & Outlook

As demonstrated by the five above cases, ISIS uses propaganda and media to influence and gain followers, but is likely not directly contacting and recruiting individuals to execute attacks in the US. Due to the decentralized nature of radicalization, widespread ISIS propaganda, and global religious tensions, however, individuals will likely continue self-radicalizing and plotting attacks against Western targets for ISIS, even without ISIS’ direct involvement. This complicates the challenge facing Western intelligence agencies because they must detect, monitor, and detain individuals on a case-by-case basis, which is often more difficult than detecting and countering direct foreign influence. The changing nature of extremist organizations and increasing cases of self-radicalization online continue to pose a challenge to US and Western national security interests, but also a possible opportunity for US intelligence and law enforcement officers. The above cases suggest that the more an individual attempts contact ISIS, the more likely he or she is to be intercepted, whereas an individual who does not attempt to contact known terrorists is harder to detect and stop—as shown in the case of Jabbar. Thus, individuals’ attempts to contact terrorist organizations online are a threat to national security, but increased knowledge of how individuals interact with extremist material and heightened surveillance of online spaces could become useful tools for counterterrorism efforts.

Sources

Glenn, Cameron, Mattisan Rowan, John Caves, and Garrett Nada. “Timeline: The Rise, Spread, and Fall of the Islamic State.” Wilson Center, October 28, 2019. www.wilsoncenter.org/article/timeline-the-rise-spread-and-fall-the-islamic-state.

Department of Justice. (January 29, 2019). Ohio Man Indicted for Attempting to Provide Material Support to ISIS and Attempting to Commit a Violent Hate Crime Attack Against a Toledo Synagogue. www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/ohio-man-indicted-attempting-provide-material-support-isis-and-attempting-commit-violent-hate.

United States v. Khan, No. 24 MAG 3225 (S.D.N.Y. filed Nov. 2023), www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/media/1366571/dl.​

United States v. Tawhedi, No. M-24-760-SM (W.D. Okla. filed Oct. 8, 2024), www.justice.gov/archives/opa/media/1373021/dl.

United States v. Said, No. 4:24-cr-00561 (S.D. Tex. filed Nov. 12, 2024), static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/11/doj-houston-memo-of-detention.pdf.

Lybrand, Holmes. “FBI Arrests Houston Man Who Allegedly Wanted to Commit a ‘9/11’ Style Attack in the US | CNN Politics.” CNN, 14 Nov. 2024, www.cnn.com/2024/11/14/politics/houston-isis-arrest/index.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=blueskyCNN&utm_content=2024-11-14T20%3A38%3A59. 

Tucker, Eric, et al. “FBI Says Driver in New Orleans Rampage Acted Alone and Was ‘100%’ Inspired by Islamic State Group.” AP News, 3 Jan. 2025, apnews.com/article/new-orleans-car-attack-bourbon-street-5bbf5fdc715c4d0d4c8764dd8da22720. 

Chowdhury, Maureen, et al. “Live Updates: The Latest on the Investigation into the Deadly New Orleans Terror Attack.” CNN, 3 Jan. 2025, www.cnn.com/us/live-news/new-orleans-truck-attack-suspect-01-02-25-hnk?t=1744303010997. 

Cover image courtesy of USA Today.

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