Russia: Turkey Operation Spring Peace Likely to Expand Russian Influence in the Middle East
Russia likely views Turkey’s Operation Spring Peace as an opportunity to establish a long-term presence in Syria. Russia will likely utilize facilitation of dialogue between the Syrian government, and Turkey, and the Kurds as means to expand influence in the Middle East. Russia is attempting to achieve peace between the Syrian Government, Turkey, and the Kurds to create a stable environment where it has the opportunity to assist the Assad regime in post-war reconstruction of Syria, while simultaneously pulling Turkey away from Western influence.
On October 22, President Erdogan met President Putin in Sochi to form an agreement to maximize their control over Syria and minimize Kurdish territory. Russia and Turkey agreed on a proposed safe zone in northeast Syria which will span across nearly all of the Syrian-Turkish border and effectively push Kurdish forces 18 miles away from Turkey’s border. [i]
Russian military police and Syrian border guards plan to mobilize along the Syrian-Turkish border to remove the Kurdish forces and their weapons in the 18-mile safe zone and will begin on October 29 to patrol along that line. [ii]
Russian-Turkish cooperation in Syria is strengthening Russian influence in the region, as it gives Russia greater control of Syria's future as well as helping its ally, Assad re-establish power. [iii]
Russia will very likely use Turkey’s Operation Spring Peace as a way to establish a greater presence in the Middle East. Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely using its deal with Turkey, the Assad regime, and the Kurds as an attempt to prove that Russia a trustworthy ally to other countries in the Middle East. Russia likely views Turkey’s Operation Spring Peace as an opportunity to insert itself in the peacemaking process while simultaneously assisting the Assad regime in securing and maintaining Syrian territory.
On October 23, Turkey’s foreign minister stated, “Within five days, Turkey reached a deal with the world’s biggest two powers. This deal is really very important for our national security—but also it made history for being a diplomatic and political success.” [iv]
On October 23, Russian military forces entered the towns of Kobane and Manbij, located on the Turkey-Syria border. Russia and Turkey plan to conduct joint patrols to ensure the full withdrawal of Kurdish forces. [v]
On October 24, a Russian defense ministry official announced Russia plans to send an additional 276 military policemen and 33 units of military hardware to Syria in a week. [vi]
President Putin will very likely pursue a joint offensive attack in the Idlib region, as indicated by Russia’s preparedness to assist Turkey in driving out remaining Kurdish forces in Northeastern Syria to establish a safe zone. Idlib is the last stronghold of rebel forces in Northwestern Syria and is currently under the protection of a demilitarization agreement made between Russia and Turkey in 2017. Russia and Syria seek to reassert control within the region to fully reestablish Assad’s control statewide.
In August 2019, al-Assad stated “Erdogan is a thief and is now stealing our land…robbed factories, wheat and fuel and is today stealing territory,” while visiting Syrian military forces in Idlib. [vii]
On October 24, Russian aircrafts were reported carrying out 32 strikes on the Hama and Latakia provinces of Idlib directly following the October 24 agreement to assist Turkey in driving out Kurdish militias in northeastern Syria. [viii] The strikes targeted the Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham base and killed several jihadist rebels and HTS commanders. [ix]
In October 2019, President Erdogan was questioned concerning the likelihood of reconsidering the ceasefire agreement Sochi, he expressed his uneasiness regarding Russia’s adherence to the August cease-fire agreement and explained, “Idlib isn’t on my agenda but we can remind each other about this.” [x]
Sources
[i]. Hodge, Nathan. “Putin and Erdogan Just Did a Deal on Syria. The US Is the Biggest Loser.” CNN, October 22, 2019. https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/22/middleeast/putin-erdogan-syria-deal-hodge-analysis-intl/index.html.
[ii]. Hodge, Nathan. “Putin and Erdogan Just Did a Deal on Syria. The US Is the Biggest Loser.” CNN, October 22, 2019. https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/22/middleeast/putin-erdogan-syria-deal-hodge-analysis-intl/index.html.
[iii]. Perper, Rosie. “Putin and Erdogan Agreed to a 'Historic' Deal to Consolidate Power in Syria and Humble Kurdish Forces. Here Are the Winners and Losers.” Business Insider, October 23, 2019. https://www.businessinsider.com/syria-deal-putin-erdogan-kurds-us-winners-losers-2019-10#winner-putin-and-russia-1.
[iv]. Gall, Carlotta, and Patrick Kingsley. “Turkey Halts Syrian Incursion, Hours After Deal with Russia.” The New York Times. The New York Times, October 23, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/23/world/middleeast/turkey-russia-syria.html.
[v]. Marcus, Jonathan. “Russia, Turkey and Syrian Government on the Same Page - but for How Long?” BBC News. BBC, October 23, 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50152390.
[vi]. Perry, Tom. “Syrian Kurds Accuse Turkey of Violations, Russia Says Peace Plan on Track.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, October 24, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security/syrian-kurds-accuse-turkey-of-violations-russia-says-peace-plan-on-track-idUSKBN1X318V.
[vii]. “Assad Calls Erdogan a ‘thief’ in rare visit to Idlib front line.” Aljazeera. October 22, 2019. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/assad-calls-erdogan-thief-rare-visit-idlib-frontline-191022163333341.html
[viii]. Malsin, Jared. “Stronghold, Raising Fears of Assad Regime Offensive.” The Wall Street Journal. October 24, 2019. https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-strikes-syrian-rebel-stronghold-raising-fears-of-assad-regime-offensive-11571929496.
[ix]. “Russian Air Force strikes jihadist base and gathering along strategic highway in Idlib.” Almasdar News. October 24, 2019. https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-air-force-strikes-jihadist-base-and-gathering-along-strategic-highway-in-idlib/.
[x]. Gautheir-Villars, David and Simmons, Ann. “Russia Agrees to Help Turkey Expand Buffer Zone in Syria.” The Wall Street Journal. October 22, 2019. https://www.wsj.com/articles/erdogan-seeks-putins-support-to-carve-out-syrian-buffer-zone-11571737838.
