Argentina: Alberto Fernandez Likely to Win Presidency
Alberto Fernandez will likely win the October 27 Argentine election due to high voter confidence and an optimistic view of the candidate’s economic policies. Additionally, incumbent President Mauricio Macri’s administration has held consistently low approval ratings. A candidate must win either 45 percent of the vote or 40 percent with a ten-point difference from the second candidate to avoid a runoff election; the runoff election is scheduled for November 24, if needed. [i]
Fernandez is expected to garner 54.4 percent, while Macri is predicted to hold 31.5 percent, according to current polls (view graphic below). [ii]
Undecided voter counts decreased from 10.4 percent on July 25 to 4.6 percent on October 17, indicating increased certainty in polling data. [iii]
Over 70 percent of Argentinians have a negative opinion of the Macri administration, primarily due to the president’s management of the economy, poverty, and inflation. [iv]
Primary concerns regarding a Fernandez presidency include economic instability and an about-face on U.S. relations. A Fernandez presidency will likely result in economic instability due to the financial sector fearing a return to control economics. Additionally, there are roughly even odds that Fernandez will shift Argentinian policy against the United States due to Vice Presidential candidate Kirchner’s platform. The fear over a return to control economics was confirmed with the Argentinian peso’s devaluation following Fernandez’s primary election victory. If elected, Fernandez will be expected to bring revolutionary changes to the economy that show he is not under the control of his running mate but are also different from Macri’s failed solutions. While Fernandez has shown no intention of changing Argentina’s relations with the United States, Kirchner has supported a number of policies that oppose U.S. interests.
President Macri imposed currency controls shortly after Fernandez’s primary election victory resulted in a 25 percent devaluation of the Argentinian peso. [v]
Fernandez has campaigned on a renegotiation of Argentina’s International Monetary Fund bailout and stated Argentina will not default on their debt if elected; however, Fernandez’s economic policy platform lacks in-depth solutions. [vi, vii]
Former President Kirchner strongly increased trade relations with Venezuela during the presidency of Hugo Chavez, whom she called a “personal friend,” and ordered the seizure of a U.S. military Boeing C17 in 2011, accusing the U.S. of attempting to smuggle drugs into Argentina. [viii, ix, x]
The election’s key drivers include economic downturn, public perception of candidates, and approval of the International Monetary Fund. President Macri’s public support has decreased due to economic downturn, leading to the primary turnout that led to his ticket losing by double digits. Furthermore, Fernandez and Kirchner carry a respected brand; notably Kirchner who lends name recognition and liberal credibility to Fernandez. The International Monetary Fund’s involvement in the economic crisis brings old wounds to the surface for many Argentinians, driving activism and voter turnout.
Poverty stemming from the economic crisis has led to a plunge in Macri’s popularity, as he has been unable to stop the peso’s free-fall or better conditions for unemployed Argentinians. Conversely, Kirchner is popular among Argentinians who view her as a champion of the poor, and her own base is often present advocating for her rather than the presidential candidate. [xi, xii]
Macri and Kirchner are both blamed by their respective opposition for the economic crisis, driving opposition to the candidates. [xiii]
Macri’s International Monetary Fund deal included economic austerity measures which cut deficits but hampered growth and disproportionately affected the groups already unemployed by the crisis. [xiv]
Federico González y Asociados Poll obtained via the Americas Society / Council of the Americas
Sources
[i]. Politi, Daniel. “Argentina’s Macri Trounced in Primary by Voters Angry Over Economy.” The New York Times, August 12, 2019. Retrieved from: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/12/world/americas/argentina-election-macri-kirchner.html.
[ii]. Horwitz, Luisa. “Poll Tracker: Argentina’s 2019 Presidential Elections.” Americas Society / Council of the Americas, October 20, 2019. Retrieved from: https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-argentinas-2019-presidential-elections.
[iii]. Horwitz, Luisa. “Poll Tracker: Argentina’s 2019 Presidential Elections.” Americas Society / Council of the Americas, October 20, 2019. Retrieved from: https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-argentinas-2019-presidential-elections.
[iv]. Opinion Polls in Argentina indicate Fernandez will be the next president.” MercoPress, October 7, 2019. Retrieved from: https://en.mercopress.com/2019/10/07/opinion-polls-in-argentina-indicate-fernandez-will-be-the-next-president.
[v]. Meredith, Sam. “Argentina imposes currency controls as its economic crisis deepens.” CNBC, September 2, 2019. Retrieved from: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/02/argentina-macri-imposes-currency-controls-as-debt-crisis-deepens.html.
[vi]. Manzanaro, Sofia Sanchez. “Quién es Alberto Fernández, la nueva cara del peronismo y favorito a la presidencia de Argentina.” Euronews, August 13, 2019. Retrieved from: https://es.euronews.com/2019/08/12/quien-es-alberto-fernandez-la-nueva-cara-del-peronismo-y-favorito-a-la-presidencia-de-arge.
[vii]. Madner, Benedict. “Argentina Elections: Why Investors Believe Macri’s Time Is Up.” August 13, 2019, Financial Times. Retrieved from: https://www.ft.com/content/a9ef8e76-bd63-11e9-89e2-41e555e96722.
[viii] “Venezuela and Argentina Deepen Trade Relations.” Poder 360°, n.d. https://web.archive.org/web/20120808051208/http://www.poder360.com/dailynews_detail.php?blurbid=6939.
[ix]. “Argentina's Kirchner Takes Hugo Chavez a Bible.” The Telegraph. Telegraph Media Group, January 11, 2013. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/venezuela/9797004/Argentinas-Kirchner-takes-Hugo-Chavez-a-Bible.html.
[x]. Gallego-Diaz, S. “Argentina Accuses US of Trying to Sneak in Illegal Drugs and Arms.” El País. en Instagram, February 16, 2011. https://elpais.com/elpais/2011/02/16/inenglish/1297837242_850210.html.
[xi]. Patricio, Miguel. “Primary Elections Shake Argentinas Right-Wing Incumbents.” CNS, August 20, 2019. https://www.courthousenews.com/primary-elections-shake-argentinas-right-wing-incumbents/.
[xii]. REY, DÉBORA. “She’s Back: Argentines Contemplate Possible Role for ‘CFK.’” Federal News Network. AP, October 21, 2019. https://federalnewsnetwork.com/government-news/2019/10/shes-back-argentines-contemplate-possible-role-for-cfk/.
[xiii]. Misculin, Nicolás. “In Farm-Rich Argentina, Hunger Cries Ring in Leaders Ears amid Crisis.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, October 10, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-election-hunger-idUSKBN1WO1HR.
[xiv]. Misculin, Nicolás. “In Farm-Rich Argentina, Hunger Cries Ring in Leaders Ears amid Crisis.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, October 10, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-election-hunger-idUSKBN1WO1HR.
