Global Leadership 2021: Effects of Peruvian Congressional Disillusionment on 2021 Election
Background: On September 30, 2019, Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra dissolved the country’s Congress and called for a reelection after the legislative body repeatedly blocked both his calls for a congressional election and anti-corruption efforts. [i] Opposition within the government referred to the move as a coup attempt by President Vizcarra, yet the public was largely supportive of the dissolution. [ii] The early election was held on January 26, 2020 resulting in no clear majority. Prior to the dissolution, the Popular Force, a right-wing populist party led by Keiko Fujimori, held the congressional majority. [iii]
Image: Peruvian Legislative Palace, located in the Plaza Bolivar.
Peru’s newly elected Congress will unlikely have a major impact on legislation change in Peru. No party holds a congressional majority; therefore, it will be more difficult for legislature to pass through congress. The current congress will have less time to impact policy as they only hold their seats for a year before a new set of representatives will be elected.
In the January 2020 election, nine parties met the 5 percent voting threshold and received between nine to 12 seats each. [iv]
Although the distribution of the seats is less right-leaning, there is no majority or any strong coalitions between parties. [v]
Per the 2018 constitutional referendum, representatives are blocked from running for a second consecutive term, so the current congress will have to wait five years before regaining the chance to be on the ballot. [vi]
With no ruling political party and less support for the Popular Force, it is likely that there will not be a majority party in Congress following the 2021 general election. While members of the disillusioned congress will be eligible for reelection in 2021, it is unlikely that the Popular Force will regain the same amount of support as the 2016 election.
After the 2020 vote, the Popular Force received 12 congressional seats whereas prior to the disillusionment the party held 73 seats [vii]
Vizcarra’s anti-corruption legislation was repeatedly blocked by the majority Popular Force congress despite the majority of the public supporting the legislation. [viii]
Vizcarra believed members of the Popular Force opposed the anti-corruption legislation for personal gain and described the disillusionment and subsequent vote as a way for the people to show their opinions on the issue. [ix]
Sources
[i]. Kurmanaev, Anatoly and Zarate, Andrea. “Peru’s President Dissolves Congress, and Lawmakers Suspend Him.” New York Times. 30 September 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/30/world/americas/peru-vizcarra-congress.html.
[ii]. “Peru election: Crushing blow for president's opponents Popular Force.” BBC. 27 January 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-51208274.
[iii]. Tegel, Simeon. “Can Vizcarra Push His Reforms Through Peru’s Newly Fragmented Congress?” World Politics Review. 3 February 2020. https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28509/after-peru-elections-can-martin-vizcarra-push-his-reforms-through-congress.
[iv]. Tegel, Simeon. “Can Vizcarra Push His Reforms Through Peru’s Newly Fragmented Congress?” World Politics Review. 3 February 2020. https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28509/after-peru-elections-can-martin-vizcarra-push-his-reforms-through-congress.
[v]. “Peru election: Crushing blow for president's opponents Popular Force.” BBC. 27 January 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-51208274.
[vi]. “Peru: what the 2018 referendum left.” Latin American Post. 19 December 2018. https://latinamericanpost.com/25273-peru-what-the-2018-referendum-left.
[vii]. Rochabrun, Marcelo. “'Stunning defeat': Fujimori's ghost fades in Peru after legislative gamble.” Reuters. 27 January 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-election-analysis/stunning-defeat-fujimoris-ghost-fades-in-peru-after-legislative-gamble-idUSKBN1ZQ290.
[viii]. Montes, Juan. “A Peruvian Political Dynasty Reels as President Dissolves Congress.” The Wall Street Journal. 16 October 2019. https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-peruvian-political-dynasty-reels-as-president-dissolves-congress-11571218202.
[ix]. “Peru's president closes Congress and calls for elections” France 24. 10 January 2020. https://www.france24.com/en/20191001-peru-president-closes-congress-calls-elections.
