Global Leadership 2021: DRC President Tshisekedi Very Likely to Remain in Power
Democratic Republic of the Congo President Felix Tshisekedi will very likely maintain the presidency through 2020. President Tshisekedi is the fifth president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the first democratically elected president to experience a peaceful transition of power. [i] Tshisekedi was elected on December 30, 2018 and was inaugurated on January 24, 2019. [ii, iii] Tshisekedi is unlikely to be removed from office by the start of 2021 as the DRC’s constitutional courts have demonstrated their support for the president and the traditionally ruling party has little incentive to remove him.
U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo meets with Democratic Republic of the Congo President Felix Tshisekedi on April 3, 2019.
Official results from the Electoral Commission (CENI) show Tshisekedi won 38.6 percent of the 2018 presidential election vote, making him the winner by 3.8 percentage points. However, leaked numbers from CENI computers revealed opposition candidate Fayulu as the winner with 59.4 percent of the vote. When Fayulu challenged the results, a constitutional court upheld Tshisekedi’s win. [iv] The courts could have easily removed Tshisekedi from power in this trial, but instead allowed him to remain in power. In the 2018 election, the Front Commun pour le Congo (FCC), the former and traditional ruling party, won a majority of the DRC’s parliamentary seats (288 out of 500) while Tshisekedi’s party (UDPS) won only 46 seats. [v] The FCC’s Joseph Kabila and Tshisekedi arranged a power-sharing deal in which the former DRC president will choose the new prime minister and have negotiating power over cabinet appointments. [vi] The Prime Minister is the head of Government and holds significant power when the president and the majority of parliament belong to different parties, as they do currently. [vii] In the current political climate, the FCC and parliament have little incentive to attempt to remove Tshisekedi from office.
Though Tshisekedi has support from most of the government as president, there is a slight chance that a coup or impeachment is pursued in order to remove him from power by 2021. The opposition candidate, Martin Fayulu, was likely the true winner of the 2018 election and his supporters – almost 60 percent of the country – could continue the long tradition of violent transitions of power in the DRC by attempting a coup on Tshisekedi’s presidency. [viii, ix] The more plausible scenario for Tshisekedi’s removal from office is through impeachment – an option open to the courts at any time. [x]
Martin Fayulu was likely the true winner of the 2018 election. Congo’s two-step ballot counting system requires that all polling stations count votes immediately in the presence of observers from all political parties and post results at the station before sending them to be recorded in the electronic system. [xi] According observers, individual polling stations, and leaked data from CENI, Fayulu won. Fayulu has called for “the Congolese people not to recognize any individual who claim [the presidency] nor to obey orders” from them. [xii] The opposition party has called for peaceful civil disobedience to demonstrate their disdain for what has been called an “electoral coup.” [xiii, xiv] The Lamuka coalition, a coalition of Fayulu supporters, have launched multiple peaceful protest attempts since then. [xv] Police have responded with force against these protestors; however, the demonstrators have maintained peaceful protest strategies. [xvi] While a coup could be hosted by these supporters, their continued dedication to peaceful means of demonstration, even in the face of live ammunition by police, makes this path to Tshisekedi’s removal very unlikely.
The more probable path to removal is through the court system. In order to run for office, Tshisekedi had to provide a university degree or certification in order to register his candidacy. His degree in marketing from the Brussels based Institute of Commercial Careers was found to be a forgery. [xvii] This violation of elections requirements opens up the possibility that the courts can decide to impeach Tshisekedi at any time. [xviii] Currently, the likelihood of this option remains low considering that the courts have not done this already, over a year into his presidency, and that they have previously upheld his legitimacy. However, if the FCC or other influential members of government stop seeing Tshisekedi as an ally, they would likely chose this route to removing him from office as an impeachment would allow the FCC prime minister to assume the presidency.
Sources
[i]. Benjamin Elisha Sawe, “Presidents of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.” World Atlas. March 27, 2019. https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/presidents-of-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-congo-kinshasa.html.
[ii]. Hermann Boko, “DR Congo: Tshisekedi takes office, but Kabila’s legacy casts long shadow.” France24. January 24, 2019. https://www.france24.com/en/20190124-dr-congo-inauguration-felix-tshisekedi-president-kabila-legacy-analysis-fayulu.
[iii]. Pierre Englebert, “Congo’s 2018 elections: An analysis of implausible results.” African Arguments. January 10, 2019. https://africanarguments.org/2019/01/10/drc-election-results-analysis-implausible/.
[iv]. Kris Berwouts, “President-on-a-Leash Tshisekedi and the DRC’s paradoxical new politics.” African Arguments. January 24, 2019. https://africanarguments.org/2019/01/24/president-on-a-leash-tshisekedi-drc-paradoxical-politics/.
[v]. “DRC: Kabila’s Coalition Wins Parliament Majority.” Africa News. January 12, 2019. https://www.africanews.com/2019/01/12/drc-kabila-s-coalition-wins-parliament-majority//.
[vi]. Giulia Paravicini, “Congo's ex-leader Kabila's party to pick prime minister: sources.” Reuters. March 8, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-congo-politics/congos-ex-leader-kabilas-party-to-pick-prime-minister-sources-idUSKCN1QP1V9.
[vii]. “The Constitution of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.” International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. 2005. http://constitutionnet.org/sites/default/files/DRC%20-%20Congo%20Constitution.pdf.
[viii]. Benjamin Elisha Sawe, “Presidents of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.” World Atlas. March 27, 2019. https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/presidents-of-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-congo-kinshasa.html.
[ix]. Pierre Englebert, “Congo’s 2018 elections: An analysis of implausible results.” African Arguments. January 10, 2019. https://africanarguments.org/2019/01/10/drc-election-results-analysis-implausible/.
[x]. Kris Berwouts, “President-on-a-Leash Tshisekedi and the DRC’s paradoxical new politics.” African Arguments. January 24, 2019. https://africanarguments.org/2019/01/24/president-on-a-leash-tshisekedi-drc-paradoxical-politics/.
[xi]. Pierre Englebert, “Congo’s 2018 elections: An analysis of implausible results.” African Arguments. January 10, 2019. https://africanarguments.org/2019/01/10/drc-election-results-analysis-implausible/.
[xii]. Martin Fayulu, “Tweet.” January 19, 2019. https://twitter.com/MartinFayulu/status/1086818772336414720?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw.
[xiii]. Aaron Ross, “Runner-up in Congo’s presidential election dismisses results as an ‘electoral coup’.” Reuters. January 9, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-congo-election-fayulu/runner-up-in-congos-presidential-election-dismisses-results-as-an-electoral-coup-idUSKCN1P40BX.
[xiv]. Jason Burke, “DRC opposition urges civil disobedience after election appeal rejected.” The Guardian. January 20, 2019. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/20/drc-opposition-leader-martin-fayulu-civil-disobedience-election-appeal-rejected.
[xv]. “DR Congo: Police Fire on, Beat Protesters.” Human Rights Watch. July 04, 2019. https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/07/04/dr-congo-police-fire-beat-protesters#.
[xvi]. “DR Congo: Police Fire on, Beat Protesters.” Human Rights Watch. July 04, 2019. https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/07/04/dr-congo-police-fire-beat-protesters#.
[xvii]. Lars Anderson, “Congo’s opposition leader’s Belgian academic certificate forgery.” The Brussels Times. January 08, 2019. https://www.brusselstimes.com/brussels/52955/degree-certificate-obtained-by-felix-tshisekedi-in-belgium-is-a-forgery/.
[xviii]. Kris Berwouts, “President-on-a-Leash Tshisekedi and the DRC’s paradoxical new politics.” African Arguments. January 24, 2019. https://africanarguments.org/2019/01/24/president-on-a-leash-tshisekedi-drc-paradoxical-politics/.
