(U) The Future of Venezuela's Political Opposition Party
Analysis by Miles Wilemon and Max Gretchokoff
4 Dec. 2024
(U) We assess with a high degree of confidence that the opposition party of Venezuela lacks the ability to further exert political change in Venezuela following the 2024 Venezuela presidential election. Currently, presidential candidate Nicholas Maduro stands to take office; however, the Maduro administration has not yet released official election tallies and votes. Edmundo Gonzalez, who ran as the opposition candidate in the recent election, has been forced to seek asylum in Spain. As a result, the opposition party of Venezuela and other nation states have officially denounced the legitimacy of Maduro’s re-election, and opposition supporters have staged protests in Venezuela. Other than cracking down on these demonstrations, the Maduro administration has yet to show any response to this backlash, or any sign of weakening. As a result, officials and sympathizers alike have reason to be concerned with the Venezuelan opposition party’s ability to influence further political change in Venezuela.
BACKGROUND
A new official presidential term has not yet started; the Venezuelan presidential inauguration is set for January.
The Maduro administration has taken actions to stifle the opposition party of Venezuela by issuing arrest warrants of opposition party leaders.
Additionally, the Maduro administration has arrested thousands of protestors following Maduro claiming victory in the presidential election, according to Human Rights Watch. Clashes between armed police and pro-opposition demonstrators in Venezuela have caused several demonstrators’ deaths.
ANALYSIS
(U) Nicholas Maduro retains the support of military, law enforcement, and pro-government armed groups to quell political dissent towards his administration. Following the July 2024 presidential election, the Maduro administration has used lethal force against opposition supporters in an attempt to curb support of governmental change in Venezuela. This shows the Maduro administration has the means and intent to maintain and legitimize Maduro’s claim to the presidency, further complicating any significant political change desired by the Venezuelan opposition.
Maduro has the support of several powerful government institutions, specifically the military and law enforcement, which he uses to exert influence and diminish any political opposition. The Venezuelan Army is the main enforcer of Maduro’s policies, and the Venezuelan National Guard (GNB) and National Police (PNB) serve as the primary enforcers of internal security within the country.
Specifically, the pro bono group Foro Penal has reported the names of over 1,580 political prisoners associated with the over 2,400 arrests announced by Venezuelan authorities. Charges leveled against these prisoners include resistance to authority, terrorism, and incitement to hatred.
Additionally, non-governmental groups such as Human Rights Watch accused the Maduro administration of using brutal repression in order to quell political protests following Maduro’s victory in the presidential election according to Al Jazeera. The NGO claimed the Venezuelan national guard and groups known as “colectivos,” killed 23 individual protestors.
Due to the Maduro Administration’s continuous use of internal security groups to disperse political protests against the Maduro administration, the future of the Venezuelan Opposition Party is growing increasingly uncertain due to the danger, risk, and deterrence associated with these internal security groups against opposition leaders and sympathizers.
(U) The Maduro administration has used the Venezuelan judiciary system against opposition party leaders before and after the presidential election, including recent presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez. This casts doubt for the future of the party and diminishes the likelihood of an opposition candidate beating Maduro in the future.
On September 4, 2024, Venezuela’s Attorney General issued an arrest warrant for Gonzalez on charges relating to conspiracy, falsifying documents, and usurpation of power, according to AP news.
Additionally, Venezuelan courts have upheld bans on barring opposition party candidates from running for the office of president, such as Maria Machado in January 2024. Following the election, the Supreme Court of Venezuela validated Maduro’s claims that he won the presidential primary election.
There is a clear pre- and post-election pattern of behavior from the Maduro administration to silence criticism from the opposition party using the judiciary system. Opposition candidates such as Machado and Gonzalez have had little-to-no opportunity to enact change via the opposition party of Venezuela due the legal barriers the Maduro administration has imposed. This represents a significant escalation of the suppression of the opposition party of Venezuela.
OUTLOOK
(U) Due to the increased suppression, legal action, and use of pro-government armed groups against the opposition party of Venezuela, the future likelihood of an opposition party leader becoming president is low. Actions taken by the Maduro administration have successfully stifled opposition party leadership despite heavy pushback from Venezuelan citizens, opposition leaders, and other countries, including condemnation from the United Nations.
The United Nations officially condemned Venezuela’s anti-democratic process and further called for an end to post-election repression by the Maduro administration. While the U.N. and other major global powers have publicly denounced the election and repression stemming from the election, no significant action has been taken against Venezuela or on behalf of the opposition candidates.
Given Maduro’s current age and the lack of term limits in the Venezuelan constitution, Maduro stands to remain in the position of president for at least the next 6 years of his presidential term.
Given the combination of little help from other nation states, extreme oppression from the Maduro administration, and diminished involvement from opposition party leaders, the effectiveness of the opposition party of Venezuela in future political elections stands to be extremely hindered.
SOURCES
Otis, John, and Carrie Kahn. “What to Know about Venezuela’s Election, as Maduro Faces Stiff Opposition.” NPR, 26 July 2024, www.npr.org/2024/07/26/nx-s1-5051813/venezuela-election-nicolas-maduro-opposition-edmundo-gonzalez.
“Venezuelan Court Issues Warrants for New Opposition Leaders.” Al Jazeera, 30 May 2023, www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/9/venezuelan-court-issues-warrants-for-new-opposition-leaders.
“Venezuela: Brutal Crackdown on Protesters, Voters.” Human Rights Watch, 4 Sept. 2024, www.hrw.org/news/2024/09/04/venezuela-brutal-crackdown-protesters-voters.
Sonneland, Holly. “Explainer: Armed Groups in Venezuela.” AS/COA, Americas Society Council of Americas, 10 June 2019, as-coa.org/articles/explainer-armed-groups-venezuela.
“Terrorismo, Incitación Al Odio: Las Duras Acusaciones Contra Los Manifestantes Detenidos En Venezuela y Las Posibles Condenas - Foro Penal.” Terrorism, Hate Speech: The Harsh Accusations against the Detained Protesters in Venezuela and the Possible Sentences, Foro Penal, 5 Aug. 2024, foropenal.com/terrorismo-incitacion-al-odio-las-duras-acusaciones-contra-los-manifestantes-detenidos-en-venezuela-y-las-posibles-condenas/.
“Venezuelan Forces Accused of ‘brutal’ Repression in Post-Election Protests.” Al Jazeera, 4 Sept. 2024, www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/4/venezuelan-forces-accused-of-brutal-repression-in-post-election-protests.
Cano, Regina Garcia, and Jorge Rueda. “Venezuelan Judge Issues Arrest Warrant for Opposition’s Former Presidential Candidate.” AP News, 3 Sept. 2024, apnews.com/article/venezuela-edmundo-gonzalez-arrest-warrant-d34272422cddb42c1dde9166539a85d5.
Sequera, Vivian, et al. “Venezuela Court Upholds Ban on Leading Opposition Presidential Candidate Machado | Reuters.” Venezuela Court Upholds Ban on Leading Opposition Presidential Candidate Machado, Reuters , 6 Jan. 2024, www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-arrests-allies-opposition-candidate-conspiracy-accusations-2024-01-26/.
“Venezuela’s Supreme Court Certifies Maduro’s Claims That He Won Presidential Election.” AP News, 23 Aug. 2024, apnews.com/article/venezuela-election-supreme-court-certifies-maduro-39d9f3b9beb0fe96fa052e4d2a3c106b.
“UN Rights Experts Call for an End to Post-Election Repression in Venezuela | UN News.” United Nations, 12 Aug. 2024, news.un.org/en/story/2024/08/1153081.
“Term Limits Eliminated in Venezuela.” CBS News, CBS Interactive, 16 Feb. 2009, www.cbsnews.com/news/term-limits-eliminated-in-venezuela/.
