Analysis and Design by Connor Hamilton, Daniel Hits, and Annabelle King

13 Nov. 2024

ANALYSIS

We selected the 15 most recent successful ship attacks to highlight a concerning trend: a shift from targeting Israeli and allied vessels to a more opportunistic approach in their choice of targets.

Due to zero percent of the ships attacked being owned by Israel or Israeli allies, we assess, with moderate confidence, that the Houthis have become increasingly indiscriminate in their targeting due to a decline in Israeli allied ships transiting the Red Sea and a global focus shifting toward the emerging conflict in Lebanon. This is evidenced by their recent attacks on vessels headed to Iran. We assess the high amounts of tanker attacks due to tankers making up the bulk of sea traffic in the area as, according to the Defense Intelligence Agency and Loyd’s List, they represent only 44 percent of targeted shipping since June 24th, 2024.

We assess with moderate confidence that due to their success in disrupting and damaging shipping combined with increased Russian interest and aid, unless Iran alters its strategy in supporting the Houthis and the international community reevaluates the Houthis’ role as a significant regional ally of Iran, the Houthis will likely continue their indiscriminate targeting.

SOURCES

Defense intelligence Agency. “Houthi Attacks Placing Pressure on International Trade.” DIA Threat reports, April 5, 2024, www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Images/News/Military_Powers_Publications/YEM_Houthi-Attacks-Pressuring-International-Trade.pdf.

Faucon, Benoit and Thomas Grove. “Russia Provided Targeting Data for Houthi Assault on Global Shipping.” Wall Street Journal, October 25, 2024, www.wsj.com/world/russia-provided-targeting-data-for-houthi-assault-on-global-shipping-eabc2c2b.

“Reported Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.” Lloyd’s List. Accessed November 4, 2024, www.lloydslist.com/hot-topics/red-sea-risk/map-and-list-of-attacks.

“YCO: Attacks in the Red Sea: Interactive Map.” ACLED, October 29, 2024, acleddata.com/yemen-conflict-observatory/red-sea-attacks-dashboard/.