Iran: Tehran Threatens Retribution Against United States, Attacks Likely
The targeted killing of General Qassem Soleimani will likely spur a series of global soft target attacks against Americans abroad, as well as U.S. and allied interests within the next 30 days. The U.S. strike against Iran’s number one military leader has increased hostility between the two nations. Tehran threatened retaliation against the United States. In response, Trump ordered U.S. military units to the Middle East, likely providing a significant deterrent against a declaration of war. Iran will likely use state funded proxies to pursue a series of attacks against soft targets.
On January 2 Qassem Soleimani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Quds Force, was killed when a U.S, missile struck his vehicle near Baghdad International Airport. [i]
Iran’s leadership condemned Soleimani’s killing, with Iran’s foreign minister calling the strike a criminal “act of state terrorism.” Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and General Ghaani, Soleimani’s military replacement, vowed to enact “harsh retaliation” in response to Soleimani’s “assassination.” [ii, iii]
Iran arms and trains proxy groups such as Lebanese Hezbollah and Shiite militias in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as the Houthi militia in Yemen. These groups are capable of orchestrating attacks against American targets and allies and allow Iran to exert military and political influence at relatively low cost. [iv]
The targeted killing of General Soleimani marks a major escalation of already tense relations between the United States and Iran. Tehran leadership vowed swift revenge against America for Soleimani’s murder. In response, Washington dispatched military reinforcement to the Middle East. The U.S. State Department issued a security alert advising all Americans in Iraq to leave the country immediately.
On January 3 Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei promised “a forceful revenge awaits the criminals who have his blood and the blood of the other martyrs on their hands.” General Ghaani threatened the United States following his appointment to head the Revolutionary Guards’ foreign operations arm saying, “Be patient, and you will see the bodies of Americans all over the Middle East.” [v, vi]
On January 3 President Trump has dispatched nearly 3,000 more troops from the 82nd Airborne Division at Fort Bragg in addition to about 700 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne who deployed to Kuwait earlier this week after the Iranian-backed militiamen and their supporters stormed the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad. [vii]
On January 2 the U.S. State Department issued a security alert telling all Americans in Iraq to leave the country immediately. “U.S. citizens should depart via airline while possible, and failing that, to other countries via land … Due to Iranian-backed militia attacks at the U.S. Embassy compound, all public consular operations are suspended until further notice. U.S. citizens should not approach the Embassy,” the State Department stated. [viii]
We assess Iran will likely forcefully retaliate against U.S. and allied interests within 30 days in response to the targeted killing of General Qassem Soleimani by the Trump administration. Iran will likely employ proxies to target Americans and allied governments globally including Israel, Saudi Arabia, and soft targets in and around foreign U.S. embassies. We assess conflict between the United States and Iran is unlikely to escalate to full-fledged war.
Iran vowed revenge in response to the U.S. airstrike that killed Tehran's most powerful military commander but is unlikely to employ a direct symmetric military against the United States due to the availability of low-risk, low-cost options and fear of a direct U.S. military response.
Iran has indicated willingness to employ proxy groups to target Americans overseas, U.S.-allies, and soft targets such as the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Argentina that killed 85 people, the Septembers attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline by Iranian trained and funded Houthi rebels, and frequent Hezbollah missile strikes against Israel. [ix, x, xi]
ICOD: 04 January 2020 at 8:00 pm CST
Sources
[i]. Crowley, Michael, et al. “Top Iranian General Qassim Suleimani Is Killed on Trump's Orders, Officials Say.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 3 Jan. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/01/02/world/middleeast/qassem-soleimani-iraq-iran-attack.html.
[ii]. Smith, Alexander. “Iran Vows Revenge and 'Harsh Retaliation' after U.S. Kills Its Top General.” NBCNews.com, NBCUniversal News Group, 3 Jan. 2020, www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-vows-revenge-harsh-retaliation-after-u-s-kills-its-n1109856.
[iii]. Loveluck, Louisa. “Iran Vows Revenge after U.S. Drone Strike Kills Elite Force Commander.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 3 Jan. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-vows-revenge-after-us-drone-strike-kills-elite-force-commander/2020/01/03/345127d6-2df4-11ea-bffe-020c88b3f120_story.html.
[iv]. Krauss, Joseph. “Iran Can Call on Powerful Friends If Conflict Engulfs Region.” AP NEWS, Associated Press, 3 Jan. 2020, https://apnews.com/e15c6b470ff3baeaa99a4dfc77ca3ef2.
[v]. Abdul-zahra, Qassim. “US Kills Iran's Most Powerful General in Baghdad Airstrike.” AP NEWS, Associated Press, 3 Jan. 2020, https://apnews.com/5597ff0f046a67805cc233d5933a53ed.
[vi]. “Soleimani’s Successor Promises ‘Bodies of Americans’ across the Middle East.” The Times of Israel, 4 Jan. 2020. https://www.timesofisrael.com/soleimani-successor-promises-bodies-of-americans-across-the-middle-east/.
[vii]. “American Defense Officials Say Nearly 3,000 More Army Troops Heading to Mideast in Wake of US Killing of Iranian General.” AP NEWS, Associated Press, 3 Jan. 2020, https://apnews.com/da8162edf3e3d3c08d94d3bc701983df.
[viii]. U.S. Department of State, U.S. Department of State, https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/iraq-travel-advisory.html.
[ix]. Miller, Zeke, et al. “Argentina Asks Russia to Arrest Iran Official over 1994 Jewish Center Bombing.” The Times of Israel, 11 July 2018, www.timesofisrael.com/argentina-asks-russia-to-arrest-iran-official-over-1994-jewish-center-bombing/.
[x]. David. “Hezbollah Hits Back at Israeli Army but Without Casualties.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 1 Sept. 2019, www.nytimes.com/2019/09/01/world/middleeast/hezbollah-israel-airstrike.html.
[xi]. “Yemen's Houthi Rebels Launch Drones on 2 Big Saudi Oil Sites.” CNBC, CNBC, 14 Sept. 2019, www.cnbc.com/2019/09/14/explosion-fire-hit-major-saudi-aramco-facility.html.
