(U) Democratic Republic of the Congo: Rwanda Likely to Annex Captured Territory

Analysis by Connor Hamilton

26 March 2025

(U) We assess with high confidence that Rwanda will attempt to annex the territory in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) recently captured by M23 rebels post-ceasefire. 

BACKGROUND

M23 rebels captured the city of Goma in January and Bukavu in February. M23 has since continued their advances to the north of Goma and south of Bukavu and has established ferry services between the two cities. With continued support from Rwanda, M23 has established new formal rebel-led governments in captured towns. The captured territory in the DRC could greatly economically benefit Rwanda, specifically through its large supply of vital minerals. The establishment of pro-Rwandan leadership in these economically vital towns indicates that Rwanda may seek to absorb these areas once armed hostilities between M23 and DRC forces end. 

ANALYSIS

(U) We assess with high confidence that Rwanda is seeking control of the eastern DRC to facilitate the transport of vital minerals from regional mines controlled by M23 for sale to the global supply chain. 

• The cities M23 has captured are in highly strategic locations for Rwandan economic interests. More than 40 percent of the world's tantalum–a vital mineral in cell phone manufacturing–is mined in the DRC, according to the BBC. Goma, situated less than a kilometer from the border of Rwanda, is a vital trading and transport hub for the mineral mines surrounding it. Bukavu is the closest major transport hub to Goma.  Both cities are key transport hubs in the movement of minerals from the DRC to Eastern Africa and abroad. Consolidating valuable cities in the eastern DRC would be key for transporting minerals to Rwanda.

• Rwanda and M23 have already benefited from collaborating in DRC mining towns before February 2025. M23 earns $800,000 per month from the taxation on the mines surrounding Goma, but is unable to profit directly from DRC minerals due to the minerals’ status as “conflict minerals” under international law. However, due to pre-existing domestic mineral mining in Rwanda, the minerals from the DRC could be sellable if exported through Rwanda. M23 “ensures that around 120 tonnes of the coveted mineral is sent directly to Rwanda every four weeks.” Since 2023, Rwandan exports of tantalum have increased by fifty percent.

• If Rwanda were to maintain control of the captured eastern DRC territory, it could further secure and exploit a vital supply route and DRC mineral production.     

Rwandan soldiers escorting surrendered Congolese troops over the border into Rwanda. © Reuters

(U) We assess with moderate confidence that the M23 rebels will maintain and consolidate control of the captured eastern DRC territory, even after hostilities cease. Current reporting suggests that the DRC government and military are unlikely, if not unable, to effectively combat M23 forces. The rebels’ recent offensive has seen them advancing to the DRC border city of Uvira with no defensive action taken by DRC forces.  Once M23 moved into Goma Congolese soldiers were seen changing into civilian clothes and abandoning their equipment, according to the BBC. This lack of effective military and domestic resistance has allowed M23 rebels to establish themselves as a governing force in the captured towns. 

• Unlike previous M23 incursions into the DRC, the rebels are now “eyeing political power” in the DRC, according to the Associated Press.

• According to the AP, M23 leaders appointed members to run city services and reopened schools in Goma as soon as February 10, 2025. They also established control over police forces in captured cities. 1,800 police officers in Bukavu have already been mobilized for retraining by M23 rebels, with 500 more expected to follow. 

• According to the BBC, the local population has “come to terms with M23 running Goma.”  

• Evidence suggests M23 has accomplished these takeovers with assistance from Rwandan military forces. IMINT released by the UN (below) shows 3,000 to 4,000 Rwandan regular troops accompanying M23 rebels, and the BBC reports that these combined forces are also spoofing and jamming DRC military drones. The presence of Rwandan troops strongly suggests that Rwanda has a vested interest in establishing control over the eastern DRC through M23. Furthermore, this could make annexing these areas convenient and easier for Rwanda in the future.

UN experts included photos of a short-range air defense system in their most recent report, claiming three were spotted in M23 territory (Kibumba, Kitchanga and Karuba) in November and were being operated by soldiers using weaponry and backpacks similar to standard Rwandan army issue.

OUTLOOK

(U) While it is unclear if M23 will continue expanding their captured territory, we assess that a ceasefire is unlikely in the foreseeable future due to the DRC government’s refusal to directly negotiate with M23 rebels. Previous conflicts in the DRC have subsided after a western peacekeeping force was sent to the region. Currently, however, peacekeeping forces sent in WHEN have had little effect in decreasing the violence. 

As fighting in the DRC continues, neighboring states are likely to become more concerned with the possibility of conflict spilling over into their territory. 

International interest and concern is also likely to increase, due to the humanitarian crises this conflict has created. Specifically, the conflict may also affect US and Chinese interest in DRC mineral production.  

SOURCES

Zane, Damian. “DR Congo Conflict: Mobile Phones, Coltan and the Fighting.” BBC News, February 1, 2025. www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn01k8948v1o 

 Wafula, Ian. “DR Congo Fighting: The Evidence That Shows Rwanda Is Backing M23 Rebels.” BBC News, January 29, 2025. www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgyzl1mlkvo.

 Rolley, Sonia. “Rebel Advance Causes Panic in Congolese Border Town Uvira.” Reuters, February 19, 2025. www.reuters.com/world/africa/rebel-advance-causes-panic-congolese-border-town-uvira-2025-02-19/

 Njie, Paul. “Goma under the M23: BBC Visits DR Congo City under Rebel Control.” BBC News, February 3, 2025. www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2yxw11zlgo 

 Asadu, Chinedu. “Why Have Rwanda-Backed Rebels Seized 2 Congolese Cities and Is There an End in Sight?” AP News, February 18, 2025. apnews.com/article/congo-m23-rebels-rwanda-explainer-ba862f76078ab0a4fcd24502612ab602 

Bai, Bo. “Anxiety Rises in DR Congo Capital as M23 Rebels Advance in East.” Reuters, February 19, 2025. www.reuters.com/world/africa/anxiety-rises-dr-congo-capital-m23-rebels-advance-east-2025-02-19/

Lederer, Edith M. “Advance of Rwanda-Backed Rebels in Congo Threatens Regional Peace, UN Officials Warn.” AP News, February 19, 2025. apnews.com/article/un-congo-m23-rwanda-congo-1bdddcf00dd15e0e4898fb0197e96920

 Njini, Felix. “China’s Norinco Sweetens Bid for Congo Copper Mines as Deal Stalls, Sources Say.” Reuters, February 21, 2025. www.reuters.com/markets/deals/chinas-norinco-sweetens-bid-congo-copper-mines-deal-stalls-sources-say-2025-02-21/ 

 Maclean, Ruth. “What Congo’s President Thinks of Rwanda: A ‘Mania to Be the Apex Predator.’” The New York Times, February 22, 2025. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/22/world/africa/congo-rwanda-tshisekedi-interview.html