[U] Left-Leaning Administration Likely to Achieve the Office of the Taoiseach in 2025 Election

Analysis by Lake Dodson and Roland Hayes

Published March 22nd, 2024

[U] Due to the resignation of Taoiseach (Irish equivalent to Prime Minister) Leo Varadkar, the Fine Gael Party has chosen Simon Harris to lead the nation until the next emergency election, it is with a certainty greater than 50% but less than 60% that Sinn Féin’s Leader Mary Lou McDonald will take the position from Harris in 2025.

[U] Former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s resignation on March 20, 2024 was sudden and unexpected, even to the members of his own party, Fine Gael [1]. Simon Harris, the new leader, was officiated as Taoiseach on March 9, 2024. This shows a pattern of tenuousness in recent Irish politics, he is the fourth Taoiseach in 5 years while the average time in office is 4.6 years [2]. The right-leaning Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil parties are now falling in popularity behind the left-leaning Sinn Féin party, led by Mary Lou McDonald. This party has not won the Taoiseach seat in over 100 years [3].

[U] McDonald’s political platform revolves around a domestic policy of Irish Reunification and foreign policy supporting Palestinian statehood, both positions with dramatic rises in popularity among the Irish public [4][5]. While this aggressive anti-English sentiment may polarize some, evidence shows that Sinn Féin’s main appeal to most Irish voters is a populist alternative to the two-party system. Large-scale dissatisfaction in the Irish establishment builds annually, as Sinn Féin is the most popular party among all age groups in Ireland [6]

[U] Nationally, housing and healthcare are the two most important issues in the Irish consciousness. Harris promised to build 250,000 houses by 2029, a sizeable increase from the previous goal of 33,000 houses per year until 2030 [7]. Currently, progress on construction is in line with these promises, but Harris’s approaches on healthcare have fallen flat. Harris has rescinded claims of lessening the waiting times of child patients, inciting “rightful public disgust” as he claims [8]. Harris has also rescinded previous allegations that Sinn Féin hid their healthcare policy, which was revealed to be false. 
. [U] Either the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil parties have held dominance in all 3 branches of the Irish government since Ireland gained independence from Britain. This has allowed Sinn Féin to emerge as a political underdog, not responsible for bureaucratic failures like the two leading parties. In short, Harris is tied to the publicly jaded opinion of Fine Gael, and McDonald can use every mistake he and his party make to undermine legitimacy. This is evidenced by McDonald’s attack on Harris on his first day as Taoiseach, commenting on his absence, “I’m here at the Dáil (legislature building) today… the Taoiseach isn’t here… We (Sinn Féin) are here. We’ve shown up to do our job.” [9].

[U] The next election for Taoiseach is set for February 2025, too far to make conclusions in absolute confidence. However, McDonald’s upward popularity amid Harris’s second month in office is evidence that Sinn Féin could be the next dominant political party in the country. A political upset from the two-party status quo would shift Ireland’s strategy and goals as a nation and could possibly aggravate relations between Ireland and the United Kingdom, both important allies of the United States.

Sources:

1.  “Simon Harris Confirms He Will Run for Fine Gael Leadership.” RTÉ News, YouTube, 21 Mar. 2024, www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5hncDRujTk&t=54s. 

2.  Colwell, Richard. “The Social Divide in Irish Politics - March 2022 Opinion Poll.” RedC Research & Marketing, 28 Mar. 2022, www.redcresearch.ie/the-social-divide-in-irish-politics-march-2022-opinion-poll/. 

3.  Cummings, Judith. “Sinn Féin First Minister a Defining Moment in Northern Ireland.” BBC News, BBC, 3 Feb. 2024, www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-68167477. 

4.  Webber, Jude. “A United Ireland? Perspectives on a Shifting Political Landscape.” Financial Times, 8 Dec. 2022, www.ft.com/content/04e666d9-8ac8-47c9-b9a5-65269772f107. 

5.  McSweeney, Eoin. “Why Ireland Is the Most Pro-Palestinian Nation in Europe.” CNN, Cable News Network, 29 Mar. 2024, www.cnn.com/2024/03/29/middleeast/why-ireland-is-the-most-pro-palestinian-nation-in-europe-mime-intl/index.html. 

6.  Ryan, Órla. “Sinn Féin Is the Most Popular Party among All Age Groups up to 65.” TheJournal.Ie, 9 Feb. 2020, www.thejournal.ie/sinn-fein-most-popular-party-age-groups-4998864-Feb2020/. 

7.  Wire), (Image: Niall Carson/PA, and (Image: Eamon Ward/PA Wire). “Sinn Fein ‘would Call Election’ If Mary Lou McDonald Stood down as Taoiseach.” Irish Mirror, 3 Apr. 2024, www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-election-mary-lou-32502328. 

8.  Dorgan, Faye. “Mary Lou McDonald Seeks to Have Public ‘in the Driver’s Seat’ for Taoiseach Decision.” Limerick Live, Limerick Live, 21 Mar. 2024, www.limerickleader.ie/news/national-news/1455882/mary-lou-mcdonald-seeks-to-have-public-in-the-driver-s-seat-for-taoiseach-decision.html. 

9.  Molony, Senan. “Simon Harris and Mary Lou McDonald Trade Social Media Videos in Row over His Dáil No-Show.” Irish Independent, 10 Apr. 2024, www.independent.ie/irish-news/simon-harris-and-mary-lou-mcdonald-trade-social-media-videos-in-row-over-his-dail-no-show/a1006257737.html.