(U) Senegal: Recent Presidential Election Upheaval Unlikely to Set New Political Precedent

Analysis by Mathew Blackwood and Miles Wilemon

Published March 22nd, 2024

(U) We assess that a new political precedent is unlikely to be created following Senegalese President Macky Sall’s attempted postponement of the 2024 Presidential Elections. On February 10, 2024 Macky Sall delayed elections that were initially set for February 25. As a result, massive protests and political turmoil ensued throughout the country leaving 3 dead and many arrested. On March 6, 2024, it was announced that the Presidential election will take place on March 24, 2024, and that President Sall’s term ends on April 2. 

• President Sall announced that the election needed to be delayed because of a dispute involving the list of approved candidates. However, many speculate that Sall delayed the election because of his lack of confidence in Prime Minister Amadou Ba’s ability to win the election. Ba is the candidate for Sall’s Benno Bokk Yakaar coalition. (1)

• Thousands of Senegalese people took to the streets protesting in response to the announcement of the delay. Police fired tear gas into the crowds in an attempt to disperse them. (2) 

• Senegal has been seen as a rare stronghold for democracy in a coup-ridden West Africa. In recent years, coup d'états have occurred in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, as well as Guinea. Since its independence in 1960, Senegal has never had a coup.

(U) The postponement of the presidential election has resulted in thousands of Senegalese civilians protesting in response. Two primary protests have occurred in response to Sall’s decree to postpone the presidential elections scheduled for February, 2024. The goal of these protests are to urge officials to post a new date for elections, and also are general protests in response to the postponement. 

• On February 11th, 2024, 3 Senegalese citizens were confirmed dead following the election postponement made by Macky Sall. On February 17, 2024 thousands of Senegal citizens staged the first official protests following Sall’s postponement of the presidential election. (3) 

• The protests indicate an invested populace that is aware of the dangers of democratic backsliding as a result of the election postponement. The protests involving civilian violence are also indicative of a populace that is willing to fight, protest, and use whatever resources necessary in order to secure a democratically elected president. 

• Many protestors carried signs reading, “Free Senegal,” “Respect the election date,” and “No to a constitutional coup d’Etat.” (4) Even presidential candidates have portrayed a concern due to the postponement of the election as presidential candidate Malick Gakou stated, “Today's watchword is mobilization... Senegal has no room for error.”(5)

(U) On February 15, the Senegalese Constitutional Council rejected Sall’s decision to postpone the election deeming the decree and parliamentary vote as “unconstitutional.”  Following the controversial decision for Macky Sall to delay elections, the ruling made by the Constitutional Council of Senegal signifies a clear utilization of the checks and balances system in place in the multiparty republic of Senegal. 

• The Constitutional Council serves as Senegal’s leading judicial authority to interpret constitutional law, regulate legislative provisions, and most importantly serves as the leading authority figure in presidential elections. This includes creating candidate lists, declaring voting results, and adjudicating election disputes (6). 

• The judicial authority of Senegal’s government quoted that the legislation passed to postpone the election was, “contrary to the constitution.” (7) The ruling demonstrates a clear use of checks and balances within Senegal’s government and also establishes the precedent that Macky Sall does not have the authority to single handedly postpone an election based on his own perceptions.

• The implications of the Constitutional Council’s decision to deem the postponement of the election as “unconstitutional” are clear indicators of a democratic process. The country has consistently been a champion for democracy in the region, and has also undergone peaceful transitions of power since its independence in 1960. This decision helps to establish credibility of Senegal's consistent democratic practices.

(U) In response to the widespread chaos throughout the country, President Sall has begun an attempt to reconcile with the country beginning with the proposal of an amnesty bill and its recent passage on March 6, 2024. The bill aims to clear people arrested in relation to political motivations from February 2021- Feb. 25, 2024. 

• Article 1 of the bill states “all acts likely to be classified as criminal or correctional offences, committed between 1 February 2021 and 25 February 2024… relating to demonstrations or having political motivations, including those made through all communication media, are amnestied as of right, whether or not the perpetrators have been tried.” (8) President Sall urged the passage of the bill to “pacify the political arena.” (9)

• This bill can certainly be seen as an attempt to calm the political climate in Senegal and reintegrate persons arrested for political demonstrations back into “democratic life.” (10) However the bill has received some pushback as it could allow individuals charged with more serious crimes, involving violent protests, to go free. 

• The recent passage of the bill has opened up the door to the release of political opposition leaders like Ousmane Sonko and Bassirou Diomaye Faye. Both Sonko and Faye have been released from prison ahead of the March 24th election and Faye wil be on the ballot backed by Sonko, a very popular figure in the country. (11) These can be seen as another reinforcement of democratic practices in the country and the importance of the existence of opposition.

Sources:

1. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/8/senegal-elections-why-did-president-macky-sall-postpone-the

2. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/4/eu-postponed-senegal-election-opens-period-of-uncertainty) 

3. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/three-dead-senegal-protests-over-delayed-presidential-election-2024-02-11/

4. https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20240217-thousands-of-senegalese-march-in-first-authorised-protest-since-elections-postponed

5. https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20240217-thousands-of-senegalese-march-in-first-authorised-protest-since-elections-postponed

6.   https://www.presidence.sn/en/institutions/constitutional-council 

7. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/senegal-constitutional-council-election-delay-was-unlawful-2024-02-15/

8. https://apanews.net/senegals-salll-tables-amnesty-bill-before-mps-to-ease-political-tension/

9. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/le-monde-africa/article/2024/03/06/senegal-opposition-leader-ousmane-sonko-first-to-be-released-under-partial-amnesty_6589815_124.html 

10. https://apanews.net/senegals-salll-tables-amnesty-bill-before-mps-to-ease-political-tension/

11. https://www.democracynow.org/2024/3/18/headlines/senegal_releases_opposition_leaders_ousmane_sonko_and_bassirou_diomaye_faye_ahead_of_elections