Global Leadership 2021: Syria's Al-Assad Likely to Remain in Power through 2021 and Beyond
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is very likely to retain power through 2021 and beyond. Much of the Syrian population is weary of the nine-year civil war [i], and likely views Assad as the only figure capable of ending the war.
A 2018 Gallup poll showed that over half of Syrians believed Assad would win the Syrian Civil War [ii]. Since that time, the regime has only claimed more land throughout the country, including all of southern Syria. [iii]
Assad now claims all land in Syria with the exception of the Kurdish autonomous zone in northeastern Syria and the small rebel enclave of Idlib in the northwest. [iv]
Emily Thornberry, former British shadow foreign secretary, recently said that Assad is more popular in Syria “than is recognized in the west,” citing his ability to retain power through the entire civil war. [v]
In the upcoming 2021 elections, Syrian citizens will likely elect Assad to another seven-year term. Assad will likely ensure that he will emerge victorious in the election by restricting voting to regime-held areas.
In the last presidential election in 2014, the government allowed only citizens in regime-held areas to vote in the election. The government barred those in rebel-held areas from voting, and Assad won in a landslide victory, capturing nearly 90 percent of the vote. [vi]
Assad has said that he will allow other candidates to join the ballot in the 2021 elections, but many in the west have described the Syrian elections as a “farce.” [vii]
Assad has previously vowed to his people that he will never “relinquish power.” [viii]
We assess that Assad is very unlikely to relinquish power peacefully, either through a domestic election or a foreign diplomatic solution. Assad is also very likely to win the Syrian Civil War, re-cementing his sovereignty over all Syrian land. Through foreign intervention from countries like Russia and Iran, Assad has nearly defeated all opposition groups [ix], and likely secured his position as president for the next seven years.
We assess that Assad will likely win the 2021 presidential election and turn to rebuilding Syria in an attempt to secure more support throughout the country.
We assess that Syria’s allies Iran and Russia will likely commit to maintaining Assad’s power through the conclusion of the civil war. Meanwhile, those countries opposed to the Assad regime, such as America and Turkey, likely have neither the capability nor willingness to commit to a regime change.
We assess that no opposition party within Syria currently has the capability to overthrow the regime, and Assad will likely retain power for years to come, unless widespread domestic opposition emerges on the scale equal to the pre-Russia intervention of the early 2010s.
Sources
[i] Mroue, Bassem. “Western sanctions push war-weary Syrians deeper into poverty.” AP. 2 August 2019. https://apnews.com/b0675c4fe03344e499eb1ea82b8728dc.
[ii] Gallup. “Syria Poll (March 2018).” Gallup. March 2018. https://www.gallup-international.com/surveys/syria-poll-march-2018/.
[iii] BBC. “Syria profile – Timeline.” BBC. 14 January 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-14703995.
[iv] Pfeffer, Anshel. “How Bashar Assad Won in Syria.” Haaretz. 16 October 2019. https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/.premium-syria-trump-turkey-kurds-isis-1.7974450.
[v] Wintour, Patrick. “Emily Thornberry cites popularity of Syria’s Assad in interview.” The Guardian. 16 May 2018. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/16/emily-thornberry-assad-popularity-syria-interview
[vi] The Guardian. “Bashar al-Assad wins re-election in Syria as uprising against him rages on.” The Guardian. 4 June 2014. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/04/bashar-al-assad-winds-reelection-in-landslide-victory.
[vii] Reuters. “Syria’s Assad: anybody will be able to run at 2021 election.” Reuters. 11 November 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-election/syrias-assad-anybody-will-be-able-to-run-at-2021-election-idUSKBN1XL0RK.
[viii] Malas, Nour. “Syrian Leader Vows ‘Iron Fist.’” WSJ. 11 January 2012. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-election/syrias-assad-anybody-will-be-able-to-run-at-2021-election-idUSKBN1XL0RK.
[ix] Charap, Samuel, et al. “Understanding Russia’s Intervention in Syria.” RAND Corporation. 2019. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3180.html.
