Syria: COVID-19 Likely to Disproportionately and Substantial Impact Vulnerable Syrian Population
The infected Syrian population will very likely multiply at an extreme rate, and Syria’s poor healthcare system will very likely result in a higher fatality rate than other countries, by April 01. Syria’s ongoing nine-year civil war has crippled the country’s medical facilities and hospitals, and Syrian authorities are ill-equipped to handle the impending COVID-19 crisis.
On March 22, Syria reported their first case of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel COVID-19. The country has since placed a ban on all transportation between cities and provinces, to go along with their earlier closing of all schools, parks, and restaurants. [i]
The World Health Organization has denoted Idlib’s large refugee population as one of the most vulnerable areas in the country. [ii] Nearly half a million civilians are currently housed in makeshift refugee camps along the Syria-Turkey border, where doctors say overcrowding and lack of adequate supplies make safe hygiene practices and social distancing nearly impossible to follow. [iii]
Part of the regime’s Idlib campaign involved making the region uninhabitable by destroying civilian targets such as hospitals and medical offices. Between April of 2019 and February of 2020, Syrian and Russian forces bombarded 95 different medical facilities in northwest Syria. [iv]
Syria almost certainly has more cases of COVID-19 than government authorities are currently reporting. Syria likely has neither the capacity nor the willingness to test and share accurate COVID-19 numbers to global health organizations.
Syrian officials, both government and rebel, have so far been unable to accurately record the number of COVID-19 cases in the country due to a limited number of available tests, facilities, and medical personnel, due to what one NGO official has deemed a “decimated… health system and infrastructure that would be vital in combating any public health emergency”. [v]
The World Health Organization currently believes that the number of cases in the country are being underreported, either due to a lack of resources or a deliberate misrepresentation of current cases. The WHO Regional Director for the Eastern Mediterranean Ahmed Al-Mandhari recently said, “information is insufficiently communicated by countries to WHO”. [vi]
As of March 22nd, each of Syria’s neighboring countries are reporting a much higher number of COVID-19 cases in their respective countries while Syria has declared just one case. Iraq currently has 233 cases, Turkey 1,236, Lebanon 248, Jordan 112, and Israel 1,238. [vii]
We assess that Syria is currently one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the current COVID-19 pandemic, and any further spreading of the virus would likely have catastrophic effects on the country’s inhabitants, especially those housed in refugee camps. The Syrian government has previously targeted their own population in military operations and will likely not attempt to combat the virus’ spread in rebel-held areas.
We assess that the COVID-19 has the potential to sweep through refugee camps in northwestern Syria at an unprecedented rate. In these areas, where access to medical equipment is severely limited, the virus would very likely have a high fatality rate.
We assess that the Syrian government will not adequately be able to contain the spread of the COVID-19 nor be able to treat a large number of infected citizens.
President Bashar al-Assad has previously targeted his own civilians in areas such as the rebel-held Idlib province, and will likely devote all his resources to regime-held areas while largely ignoring the virus in rebel-held areas, lest they fear a further spread of the virus into mainland Syria.
Sources
[i]. Reuters. “Fears mount as Syria reports first coronavirus case.” Reuters. 23 March 2020. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/fears-mount-syria-reports-coronavirus-case-200323072420219.html.
[ii]. The Jerusalem Post. “War-ravaged Syria takes steps against coronavirus.” The Jerusalem Post. 21 March 2020. https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/War-ravaged-Syria-takes-steps-against-coronavirus-no-recorded-cases-yet-621745.
[iii]. Hagedorn, Elizabeth. “Doctors in northwest Syria brace for ‘devastating’ coronavirus. Al-Monitor. 19 March 2020. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/03/syria-northwest-doctors-brace-coronavirus.html
[iv]. Syrian American Medical Society. “Civilians, Civilian Infrastructure in Northwest Syria Face Heightened Attacks. Ten Schools, One Hospital Attacked Today.” Syrian American Medical Society. 25 February 2020. https://www.sams-usa.net/press_release/civilians-civilian-infrastructure-in-northwest-syria-face-heightened-attacks-ten-schools-one-hospital-attacked-today/.
[v]. Sewell, Abby. “Concern Over Syria’s Claim of Zero Coronavirus Cases.” U.S. News. 18 March 2020. https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-03-18/doubts-surround-syrias-claim-of-zero-coronavirus-cases
[vi]. Mourad, Mahmoud; Farge, Emma. “Mideast states must share more information on coronavirus cases: WHO.” Reuters. 18 March 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-mideast/mideast-states-need-to-offer-more-information-on-coronavirus-cases-who-idUSKBN2151AP.
[vii]. Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Research Center. “Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering.” Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Research Center. Last updated: 23 March 2020. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6.
