Syria Update: U.S. Withdrawal Likely to Lead to Increased Islamist Insurgency
Extremist opposition rebel groups are likely to capitalize on the newly distracted and thinned out SDF, Regime, Turkish, Russian, and Iranian forces by expanding their sphere of influence outside of Idlib as the United States begins its disengagement. The groups, such as Hay’at Tahrir as-Sham (HTS) and Hurras ad-Deen (HAD), are most likely to expand into the recently freed southeastern city of Deir ez-Zor.
In early January 2019, HAD was reported to begin expansion into Iraq, consistent with their ability to actively move troops and resources across regime controlled territory, and unique ability to conduct raids against the Assad regime. [i] HAD has shown both the capacity and the desire to move out of Idlib, contributing to their likelihood of expanding elsewhere when the time arises.
HTS has taken advantage of the Russian and Assad regime’s focus on the Kurds and remnants of the IS caliphate, which has provided a window of opportunity to establish a new foundation outside Idlib. HTS has completely consolidated their area of control in Idlib between December 2018 and January 2019. [ii]
As the SDF removes remaining IS cells from the area, there will be a vacuum for true power that will probably be filled by either HTS, HAD, or a combination of the two. HTS’ and HAD’s predecessor, the al-Nusra Front, has a long history of operations in Deir ez-Zor before being removed by IS in 2014, but these networks still exist and much of the same leadership from al-Nusra is in power with both organizations. [iii, iv]
Sources
[i]. al-Saidi, H. “Is Iraq’s ‘Guardians of Religion’ aiming for a ‘Sunni Region’?”Al-Arabiya. January 2, 2019. Retrieved from: https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2019/01/02/Iraq-Guardians-of-Religion-seeks-toestablish-a-Sunni-region.html.
[ii]. Haid, H. “Is HTS Winning Hearts and Minds in Syria?” The Middle East Eye. February 5, 2019. Retrieved from: https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/hts-winning-hearts-and-minds-syria
[iii]. Dziadosz, A. “Islamic State Expels Rivals from Syria’s Deir al-Zor - activists.” Reuters. July 14, 2014. Retrieved from: https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKBN0FJ1I020140714.
[iv]. Spencer, R. “Al-Qaeda’s Syrian Wing Takes Over the Oilfields Once Belonging to Assad.” The Telegraph. May 18, 2013. Retrieved from: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10065802/AlQaedas-Syrian-wing-takes-over-the-oilfields-once-belonging-to-Assad.html.
