Russia: Political Impact of S-400 Exports Abroad on US Interests
Russia’s sales of the S-400 defense system are likely to pose a strategic threat to the United States and its allies because the respective sales expand economic and trade opportunities for Russia, which is likely to solidify Russia’s relations with various countries while undermining relations with the United States. The S-400 is a Russian SAM system which is an upgrade package to the S-300 PMU-2. Although it has yet to be used in combat, technical analysts believe it to be the most capable air defense system in production today. [i]
S-400 batteries are deployed with the 91N6E “Big Bird” acquisition and battle management radar. The 91N6E can detect up to 300 targets at distances up to 600 km. When fitted with the 40N6E missile, the S-400 can destroy targets up to 400 km away, making the S-400 a capable anti-ballistic missile system. [ii]
Due to the nature of the 40N6E missile, the system poses a direct threat to US AWACS, JSTARS, EA-6B support jammers and other high-value targets. The increased range will likely force these systems to operate further from the battlefield, limiting their operational impact in combat. [iii]
The S-400 is a direct competitor to American MIM-104 Patriot missile system, in service with many NATO nations. [iv] The MIM-104 has a range of only 60-70 km, making it less capable in combat. [v]
Russian S-400 sales are likely to bring in an average of at least $1B per year of revenue for Russia over the next decade and are also likely to indirectly improve Russian arms sales in other categories over the next decade by fostering new trade relationships and strengthening existing relationships. Overall, some analysts have suggested that the direct revenue from S-400 deals could reach about $30B over the next 15 years.1213 $1 billion to $2 billion in increased annual revenue is only roughly 0.3% to 0.7% of overall Russian exports, but represents approximately 6-13% of Russian arms exports, making this is a notable portion of Russian arms exports. [vi, vii, viii] This analysis does not account for potential negative effects such as sanctions responses (e.g. from the US).
Since 2007, China, Turkey, and India have signed large deals for the S-400. India’s deal, for example, was $5.4B for five S-400 batteries and associated equipment. [ix]
Within the past year, Russia has negotiated and/or signed S-400 deals with countries that have received minimal to no arms sales from Russia in recent years, including Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) going back to 2010. [x]
On October 5, 2018, Russia made a deal with India for the S-400 system, which also contained discussions for future deals on items such as ships, aircraft, artillery, etc. [xi] This suggests that if the S-400 deal is beneficial for both parties, Russia and India would be more likely to deepen their partnership in the future.
Russia’s S-400 sales to China, Turkey, and India are likely to both solidify Russian ties and undermine US ties with the countries. In July 2012, Putin said that arms exports are “an effective instrument for advancing [Moscow’s] national interests, both political and economic.” [xii] China, Turkey, Algeria and India have purchased the system, while Iraq and Qatar and Saudi Arabia are negotiating with Russia for the system.
In December 2013, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said that Russia’s arms sales are the most important element of Moscow’s relations with other countries. [xiii] So far Russia has sold the S-400 missile to Belarus, China, Turkey and India, while in talks for a sale with; Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Qatar.
Relations between the West and Turkey have deteriorated after Turkey purchased the system in December of 2017, and NATO members have threatened to respond with sanctions. [xiv] President Erdogan of Turkey stated that his country would make their own decisions and not be influenced by the West, questioning “Are we going to depend on the US again. When we have been demanding from the for years… the Congress is not allowing.” [xv]
If Turkey acquires both the S-400 and US F-35 multi-role fighters, it would have the capability to test the weapons against each other. If Turkey can acquire this data, Russia could as well. Russian knowledge of the weaknesses to the S-400 when combating F-35s, enables them to modify future missile defense systems to perform better against U.S. planes. [xvi]
Sources
[i] Bryen, Stephen. “Russia's S-400 Is Way More Dangerous Than You Think.” The National Interest, The Center for the National Interest, 18 Jan. 2018, nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/russias-s-400-way-more-dangerous-you-think-24116.
[ii] Pike, John. “64N6 Tombstone.” Globalsecurity.org, www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/tombstone.htm.
[iii] “S-400 Triumph Air Defence Missile System.” Army Technology, www.army-technology.com/projects/s-400-triumph-air-defence-missile-system/.
[iv] Pike, John. “S-300PMU3 / S-400 Triumf / SA-21 Growler.” Globalsecurity.org, www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/s-400.htm.
[v] “Patriot MIM-104.” Army Recognition, 2 Nov. 2018, www.armyrecognition.com/united_states_american_missile_system_vehicle_uk/patriot_mim-104_surface-to-air_defense_missile_data_sheet_specifications_information_description.html.
[vi] Connolly, Richard and Cecilie Sendstad. “Russia’s Role as an Arms Exporter The Strategic and Economic Importance of Arms Exports for Russia.” March 2017. Chatham House. https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/publications/research/2017-03-20-russia-arms-exporter-connolly-sendstad.pdf
[vii] Data downloaded from: “IMPORTER/EXPORTER TIV TABLES.” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/page/values.php
[viii] “Russia.” The Observatory of Economic Complexity. https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/rus/
[ix] Balmforth, Tom and Denis Pinchuk. “Russia signs S-400 missile deal with India: Ifax.” 5 October 2018. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-india-missiles/russia-signs-s-400-missile-deal-with-india-ifax-idUSKCN1MF10T
[x] Data downloaded from: “IMPORTER/EXPORTER TIV TABLES.” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/page/values.php
[xi] Raghuvanshi, Vivek. “India approves S-400 buy from Russia, amid expectations for more bilateral deals.” 28 September 2018. Defense News. https://www.defensenews.com/land/2018/09/28/india-approves-s-400-buy-from-russia-amid-expectations-for-more-bilateral-deals/
[xii] President of Russia, Meeting of the Commission for military technology cooperation with foreign states,” Kremlin.ru, July 2, 2012, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/15865.
[xiii] “Rogozin: Russia Ranks Second in the World on Export Supply of Military Goods,” Daily News Light, December 11, 2013, http://dailynewslight.ru/?u=11122013868.
[xiv] Borshchevskaya, Anna. “The Tactical Side of Russia's Arms Sales to the Middle East.” Jamestown, 20 Dec. 2017, jamestown.org/program/tactical-side-russias-arms-sales-middle-east/#_edn18.
[xv] “Turkey Will Use S-400s If Necessary, President Erdoğan Says - Turkey News.” Hürriyet Daily News, www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-will-use-s-400s-if-necessary-erdogan-says-133164.
[xvi] Roblin, Sebastien. “America's Big Fear: Turkey Mixing F-35s and Russia's S-400 Air Defense System.” The National Interest, The Center for the National Interest, 7 July 2018, nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/americas-big-fear-turkey-mixing-f-35s-and-russias-s-400-air-defense-system-25152.
