Russia: African Support in UN Likely due to Central African Republic Investment

Russia is very likely to continue exerting political and military influence through defense presence in the Central African Republic in an effort to gain political leverage in Africa. Since 2015, Russia has signed military contracts supplying small arms and counter-terrorism and anti-piracy training. [i] Russia has made bilateral military deals with over 20 countries in Africa, however the Central African Republic has placed Russian advisers within their government including President Touadera’s national security advisory. [ii] Russia will very likely increase their military presence to assert influence in a geopolitical region, where there is a Western power vacuum. 

• Africa is an attractive stronghold for Russian influence due to Africa’s 54 United Nations member states forming the organization’s largest voting bloc. [iv]

• Moscow deployed teams of military instructors to train elite presidential guards, sent arms shipments and assisted autocrats with election strategies to the Central African Republic. [v] 

• Russia is Africa’s largest arms supplier, accounting for over 35%. Russia’s arms contract portfolio is worth over $50 billion. [vi]

The Central African Republic will likely continue to depend on Russian military intervention and supplementation as Russia facilitates peace negotiations between the Central African Republic government and rebel factions as a part of the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic. [vii] After Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the Kremlin needed to establish allies in order to initiate influence over major sectors, after Russia’s annexation of Crimea. As a consequence, the foothold Russia gained in central Africa likely will expand its influence throughout the continent, encroaching on Western countries who have supported the Central African Republic for years. [viii]

• “This could come down to a test of traditional Western resolve, power and influence… If [the United States] cedes C.A.R., [they’re] ceding Africa,” according to one senior diplomat of the Central African Republic. [ix]

• Russian guards assist President Touader’s security detail, specifically providing anti-coup and anti-assassination protection. [x]

Russia will likely garner the support of African political figures and alienate western presence in the continent due to Moscow’s efforts to assert influence in Central African Republic. Russia has been able to leverage military contracts, and exert political and economic influence with the resources available as a return its efforts with minimal investment. [xi] Over the next year, Russia will increase imports of advisers and arms the Central African Republic, likely turning Bengui towards Russia over the United States. 

• As Russia gains leverage within the continent, it counters itself against China as well as the United States. [xii] Confidence will likely grow with respect to their foreign policy as more African countries become allies.

• It is unclear whether France is invested in maintaining a strict influence within Africa, as global spotlight is in the Middle East rather than Africa. 

• In October 2019, the Russia-Africa summit in Sochi, provided Moscow the platform to formally establish its diplomatic efforts on a pan-African scale, allowing Russia to present a more positive view of its intentions in Africa. [xiii]

Sources

[i]. Ross, A. 2018. “How Russia moved into Central Africa.” (retrieved October 30, 2019). https://www.reuters.com/article/africa-russia/rpt-insight-how-russia-moved-into-central-africa-idUSL8N1WX1GU. 

[ii]. “Russia in the Central African Republic: Exploitation Under the Guise of Intervention.” Philologia, 11(1), pp.34–42. (retrieved October 30, 2019). https://philologiavt.org/articles/10.21061/ph.177/. 

[iii]. Schmitt, E. “Russia's Military Mission Creep Advances to a New Front: Africa.” (retrieved October 30, 2019). https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/31/world/africa/russia-military-africa.html. 

[iv].  Ross, A. 2018. “How Russia moved into Central Africa.” (retrieved October 30, 2019). https://www.reuters.com/article/africa-russia/rpt-insight-how-russia-moved-into-central-africa-idUSL8N1WX1GU. 

[v]. Foy, H. 2019. “Russia: Vladimir Putin’s pivot to Africa.” Financial Times. (retrieved October 30, 2019). https://www.ft.com/content/a5648efa-1a4e-11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21. 

[vi]. Hedenskog, J. “Russia is Stepping Up its Military Cooperation in Africa, Swedish Defence Research Agency.” (retrieved October 30, 2019). https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/FOI%20MEMO%206604. 

[vii]. N/A. 2019. Stratfor Worldview. “Russia: Putin Signs Decree to Send Troops to Central African Republic.” (retrieved October 30, 2019). https://worldview.stratfor.com/situation-report/russia-putin-signs-decree-send-troops-central-african-republic. 

[viii]. Vinograd, C. 2018. The Washington Post. “There's a new battle for influence in Central Africa, and Russia appears to be winning.” (retrieved October 30, 2019). https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/05/31/theres-a-new-battle-for-influence-in-central-africa-and-russia-appears-to-be-winning/. 

[ix]. Vinograd, C. 2018. The Washington Post. “There's a new battle for influence in Central Africa, and Russia appears to be winning.” (retrieved October 30, 2019). https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/05/31/theres-a-new-battle-for-influence-in-central-africa-and-russia-appears-to-be-winning/. 

[x]. Harding, L and J Burke. 2019. “Leaked documents reveal Russian effort to exert influence in Africa.” (retrieved October 30, 2019). https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/11/leaked-documents-reveal-russian-effort-to-exert-influence-in-africa. 

[xi]. “Russia in the Central African Republic: Exploitation Under the Guise of Intervention.” Philologia, 11(1), pp.34–42. (retrieved October 30, 2019). https://philologiavt.org/articles/10.21061/ph.177/. 

[xii]. Hedenskog, J. “Russia is Stepping Up its Military Cooperation in Africa, Swedish Defence Research Agency.” (retrieved October 30, 2019). https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/FOI%20MEMO%206604. 

[xiii]. Weyo, M. 2019. Stratfor Worldview. “Russia Expands Its Game Plan in Africa.” (retrieved October 30, 2019). https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/russia-expands-its-game-plan-africa-diplomacy-summit-sochi-security-economic