All tagged Putin
We assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely attempt to remove opposition groups in Belarus to secure Lukashenko’s absolute power. It is unlikely that the Russian President will allow an opposition-led regime change within Belarus as Putin seeks to further protect the legitimacy of Belarus’s 26-year-old withstanding dictatorship.
We assess that the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and the Kremlin’s continuous denial of involvement will continue to agitate Navalny’s supporters and further national discontent with the Putin regime.
Russia’s constitutional referendum, to be held on an undetermined date, will likely solidify President Vladimir Putin’s ability to run for re-election in 2024. President Putin on 20 January 2020 proposed a set of constitutional amendments, including one which effectively resets Putin’s presidential term count to zero allowing him to serve as president for up to 12 more years. The Russian Parliament proceeded to approve the amendments. Hours after the State Duma approved the amendment’s final reading, 160 out of the 164 members of the Federation Council approved the bill.
Russia likely views Turkey’s Spring Peace Operation as an opportunity to establish a long-term presence in Syria. Russia will likely utilize facilitation of dialogue between the Syrian government, and Turkey, and the Kurds as means to expand influence in the Middle East.
The Russian-Ukrainian prisoner exchange on September 7 will likely set the stage for future peace talks in an effort to end the war in Donbass.
Moscow and Kiev will likely participate in peace talks before the end of 2019 as President Putin and President Zelensky have recently expressed willingness and made tangible strides to normalize relations.
