Russia: Recent Prisoner Exchange Indicates Improved Relations with Ukraine
Moscow and Kiev will likely participate in peace talks before the end of 2019 as President Putin and President Zelensky have recently expressed willingness and made tangible strides to normalize relations. Russia and Ukraine conducted a major prisoner exchange on September 7, easing tensions between the two countries. France and Germany proposed a peace summit with Ukraine and Russia to take place by September 31, although this is very unlikely.
On September 7, 2019, Russia and Ukraine exchanged a total of 70 prisoners, including Ukrainian sailors that were detained in November 2018 following a skirmish in the Kerch Strait. The high-profile prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine is viewed as a boost to potential resumption of peace talks. [i]
France and Germany proposed a meeting in the Normandy format to take place this month in Paris. Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France last met in Minsk in 2016 to implement a 2015 peace deal which failed to achieve a lasting ceasefire. [ii]
September’s prisoner exchange likely signifies improved trust and openness on both sides to resume peace talks. Russia on Friday, September 13 indicated willingness to resume stalled talks and search for a solution to the conflict with Ukraine, however Moscow listed preconditions that may impede the progress.
President Putin called the prisoner exchange “a good step” toward the normalization of relations between Moscow and Kiev, while President Zelensky added steps had been taken to “finish this horrible war.” [iii]
Russia said it is ready to participate in a four-way summit with the Normandy quartet and Trilateral Contact Group to revive the stalled Ukrainian peace process. [iv]
Moscow insists on three preconditions before proposed peace-talks: 1) The rival armed forces in eastern Ukraine should be separated on either side of the line of contact, 2) the wording on a special status for the Donbass region should be agreed, and 3) there must be a preliminary agreement on what the summit’s conclusions should be. [v]
Russia and Ukraine will likely meet to discuss a peace agreement within the next 90 days as both Moscow and Kiev are under political pressure to resolve the conflict. However, Kiev’s concern that they will be pressured into making a bad deal represents an impediment. For Ukraine, a deal would mark a major victory for Zelensky, who campaigned on the promise to end the conflict with Russia. For Russia, an agreement eases tensions with Europe which imposed sanctions on Russia’s already ailing economy after the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
President Macron said the prisoner swap between Moscow and Kiev has given momentum to talks on resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine and Germany’s foreign minister has called for a meeting to push end the conflict in eastern Ukraine. [vi]
President Trump has said he is willing to join the so-called Normandy format talks between France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia, stating he would do so if his presence would help progress the discourse. [vii]
Zelensky’s envoy for peace talks with Russia-backed separatists expressed concern that the leaders of France and Germany will push Ukraine to make unacceptable concessions, especially approving a plan for the separatists to hold local elections in the areas they control without any oversight by the Ukrainian government. [viii]
For further analysis read Russia: Prisoner Exchange Likely to Encourage Future Peace Talks HERE.
Sources
[i]. Nechepurenko, Ivan, and Palko Karasz. “Russia and Ukraine Swap Dozens of Prisoners, 'the First Step to Stop the War'.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 7 Sept. 2019, www.nytimes.com/2019/09/07/world/europe/russia-ukraine-prisoner-swap.html.
[ii]. Zinets, Natalia. Ukraine President Expects Trump Meeting, Donbass Peace Talks in September. www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/ukraine-president-expects-trump-meeting-donbass-peace-talks-in-september/ar-AAHe52p?li=AA4Zpp.
[iii]. Chistikova, Tatyana, et al. “Russia and Ukraine Complete Prisoner Swap, Raising Hopes for Eased Tensions.” NBCNews.com, NBCUniversal News Group, 7 Sept. 2019, www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-complete-prisoner-swap-raising-hopes-eased-tensions-n1050646.
[iv]. The New York Times. “Russia Ready for Ukraine Peace Talks but Sets Preconditions.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 13 Sept. 2019, www.nytimes.com/reuters/2019/09/13/world/europe/13reuters-russia-ukraine-talks.html.
[v] Soldatkin, Vladimir. “Russia Ready for Ukraine Peace Talks but Sets Preconditions.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 13 Sept. 2019, www.ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN1VY1KH-OCATP.
[vi]. Zinets, Natalia. “Ukraine President Expects Trump Meeting, Donbass Peace Talks in...” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 13 Sept. 2019, www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-summit/ukraine-president-expects-trump-meeting-donbass-peace-talks-in-september-idUSKCN1VY0M0.
[vii]. Wintour, Patrick. “Trump Offers to Join in French Overtures to Resolve Russia-Ukraine Crisis.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 10 Sept. 2019, www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/10/trump-offers-to-join-in-french-overtures-to-resolve-russia-ukraine-crisis.
[viii]. “Ukraine Fears Forced Concessions at Talks with Russia.” ABC News, ABC News Network, 13 Sept. 2019, www.abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ukraine-fears-forced-concessions-talks-russia-65597327.
