Russia: Ukraine Prisoner Exchange Likely to Encourage Future Peace Talks
The Russian-Ukrainian prisoner exchange on September 7 will likely set the stage for future peace talks in an effort to end the war in Donbass. The prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine shows an improvement since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 that led to a complete halt in cooperation.
On July 11, Presidents Putin and Zelensky held their first telephone call in which they discussed the possibility of a prisoner exchange. [i]
On September 7, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 70 prisoners, which President Zelensky called “the first step to end” the war in Donbass. [ii]
“We view the agreed mutual release of persons held in Russia and Ukraine as a positive signal that should be followed by other important steps to break the impasse in the current situation in Russia-Ukraine relations,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said on September 7. [iii]
Ukrainian President Zelensky, after winning the April election with 70 percent of the vote, will likely further bolster domestic approval from the Russian-Ukrainian prisoner exchange. Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely using the prisoner exchange as an attempt to normalize Russian relations with the West while putting Russia in the global spotlight. After the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia was put under multiple international sanctions. The prisoner exchange is likely an attempt to alleviate some of these restrictions. [iv]
NATO called the prisoner exchange “a step in the right direction,” but called Russia to release all prisoners. [v]
The prisoner exchange “allows Zelensky to fulfill one of his main pre-election promises,” according to one Ukrainian analyst of unknown credibility. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy vowed to end the war in eastern Ukraine between government troops and separatist rebels. [vi]
The country is looking to swap hundreds of more prisoners, according to Ukrainian officials. “First, we will find each Ukrainian person held in Russia and the territories not controlled by Ukraine, then we will [exchange them] according to the principle of all for all,” Ukraine’s chief negotiator said in a statement. [vii]
It is likely that the Russian-Ukrainian prisoner exchange has established a baseline for future peace talks. We assess Zelensky will push for a diplomatic resolution to resolve conflict in the Donbass. After receiving the released prisoners, Zelensky made it clear that his intentions are to schedule peace talks with President Vladimir Putin and to use all means necessary to end the war, within the bounds of the Minsk agreement. [viii, ix] While Zelensky aims to assert peace in Donbass and reintegrate the region into Ukraine, his priority withdrawing troops in the region. [x]
The chairman of the pro-Russia political organization Ukraine Choice in late July “presented a ‘Concept Plan to Resolve the Crisis in the South-East of Ukraine’ at an informal meeting with the European Parliament. [xi]
The Russian Foreign Ministry stated they “view the agreed mutual release of persons held in Russia and Ukraine as a positive signal that should be followed by other important steps to break the impasse in the current situation in Russia-Ukraine relations.” [xii]
Zelensky explained at a joint briefing with Turkish President Erdogan in Ankara that Ukraine intends to cooperate with international partners to peacefully and diplomatically bring about reconciliation with Russia in Donbass. [xiii]
For further analysis read Russia: Recent Prisoner Exchange Indicates Improved Relations with Ukraine HERE.
Sources
[i]. Krasnolutska, Daryna. “Putin Speaks to Ukraine’s New President for First Time.” Bloomberg.com. Bloomberg, July 11, 2019. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-11/putin-speaks-to-new-ukraine-president-zelenskiy-for-first-time.
[ii]. Nechepurenko, Ivan, and Andrew Higgins. “Russia and Ukraine Swap Dozens of Prisoners, in a 'First Step to Stop the War'.” The New York Times. The New York Times, September 7, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/07/world/europe/russia-ukraine-prisoner-swap.html.
[iii]. Zinets, Natalia. “Russia, Ukraine Swap Prisoners in First Sign of Thawing Relations.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, September 7, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-russia-prisoners/russia-ukraine-swap-prisoners-in-first-sign-of-thawing-relations-idUSKCN1VS04X.
[iv]. Ellyatt, Holly. “'Long Way to Go' before Russia-Ukraine Repair Relations despite Prisoner Swap, Experts Say.” CNBC, CNBC, 11 Sept. 2019, www.cnbc.com/2019/09/11/long-way-to-go-before-russia-ukraine-repair-relations-after-prisoner-swap.html.
[v]. Schaart, Eline. “Ukraine, Russia Exchange Prisoners.” POLITICO, POLITICO, 7 Sept. 2019, www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-prison-swap-under-way-reports/.
[vi]. Heintz, Jim. “Russia and Ukraine Trade Prisoners, Each Fly 35 to Freedom.” Yahoo News, Yahoo, 7 Sept. 2019, www.news.yahoo.com/lawyer-ukraine-russia-prisoner-exchange-081226712.html.
[vii]. Seddon, Max. “Ukraine Eyes Further Prisoner Swap with Russia.” Financial Times, Financial Times, 15 Sept. 2019, www.ft.com/content/436b3386-d7a7-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17.
[viii]. Raphelson, Samantha. “Russia And Ukraine Conduct Prisoner Exchange, Renewing Hopes For Talks.” National Public Radio, NPR, 7 Sept. 2019, www.npr.org/2019/09/07/758652882/russia-and-ukraine-conduct-prisoner-exchange-renewing-hopes-for-talks.
[ix]. Nechepurenko, Ivan, and Andrew Higgins. “Russia and Ukraine Swap Dozens of Prisoners, in a 'First Step to Stop the War'.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 7 Sept. 2019, www.nytimes.com/2019/09/07/world/europe/russia-ukraine-prisoner-swap.html.
[x]. Rapoza, Kenneth. “Ukraine's New President Zelensky Hints At Peace With Russia.” Forbes, Forbes Magazine, 16 Sept. 2019, www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2019/09/16/ukraines-new-president-zelensky-hints-at-peace-with-russia/#6fc49bfc6a39.
[xi]. Hosa, Joanna, and Andrew Wilson. “Zelensky Unchained: What Ukraine's New Political Order Means for Its Future.” ECFR.EU, 25 Sept. 1970, https://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/zelensky_unchained_what_ukraines_new_political_order_means_for_its_future.
[xii]. Raphelson, Samantha. “Russia And Ukraine Conduct Prisoner Exchange, Renewing Hopes For Talks.” NPR, NPR, 7 Sept. 2019, https://www.npr.org/2019/09/07/758652882/russia-and-ukraine-conduct-prisoner-exchange-renewing-hopes-for-talks.
[xiii]. “Ukraine Doing All to Achieve Peace in Donbas by Diplomatic Means - Zelensky.” Ukrinform, Ukrinform, https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/2756302-ukraine-doing-all-to-achieve-peace-in-donbas-by-diplomatic-means-zelensky.html.
