Italy’s Ukraine Policy Unlikely to Change After Right-Wing Victory
We assess the right-wing coalition, which won a majority of seats in Italy’s elections on 25 September 2022, is unlikely to oppose continuing military and economic support to Ukraine. The right-wing coalition, made up of the parties Brothers of Italy, the League, and Forward Italy, won around 44% of the vote. Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy, is expected to become Prime Minister.
Mario Draghi’s parliamentary coalition fell apart in July 2022 after infighting with the 5- Star Movement. The coalition was composed of all the major parties of Italy, minus the Brothers of Italy. (1)
The Democratic Party’s alliance netted 26% of the vote. The center-left party faced competing coalitions from the left and center, decreasing its chances of electoral success. Enrico Letta, leader of the Democratic Party, called the right-wing coalition’s victory a, “sad day for Italy and Europe”. The Democratic Party will be the largest opposition party in the new parliament. (2, 3, 4)
Giorgia Meloni, 45 years old, and Brothers of Italy won 26% of the individual party vote share. Colleagues describe Meloni as uncompromising and steadfast. She has espoused support for Ukraine and taking a hard line with Moscow. She has stated she is influenced by Roger Scruton, an English political philosopher who specialized in traditionalist conservatism, according to news outlets. (5, 6, 7)
Meloni’s government is likely open to working with western leaders on implementing more sanctions on Russian economic industries and arming Ukraine. Although European right-wing parties have expressed sympathies towards Russia in recent years, Meloni’s administration is set to diverge from the trend. Meloni views the war in Ukraine as the “tip of the iceberg” in a fight for the West’s influence in Europe. Meloni believes that lagging Russian GDP indicates that sanctions are working. Concerns with Meloni’s coalition allies, Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi, have been expressed; both are known associates of Vladimir Putin, but we believe that Meloni’s uncompromising attitude will likely keep Salvini and Berlusconi in line regarding policy with Russia.
Sanctions became an issue within the right-wing coalition when Matteo Salvini, leader of the League, disputed the effectiveness of Russian sanctions. Salvini believes sanctions are strangling everyday Italians. Meloni believes standing by sanctions is needed to bolster Italy’s “international credibility”. In the lead-up to the election, the two took a photo together to signal their unity as a coalition. Meloni has said that siding with Ukraine was “one of the easiest decisions of my life.” (5, 7, 8, 9)
Meloni supported arming Ukraine throughout the election. She has voiced that Italy “cannot think of being neutral without consequences.” She perceives the conflict not only as a battle with Russia but as a fight against Chinese influence in Europe as well. Moreover, Meloni has said, “The foreign policy of a government led by Brothers of Italy will remain as it is today.” (5)
Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi, leader of Forward Italy, both have ties with Russia. Salvini has lauded Putin in the past, describing him as “one of the best statesmen.” He has condemned Putin more recently. Berlusconi was friends with Putin until the invasion of Ukraine. Both the League and Forward Italy have expressed soft views on Russia. (9, 10, 11)
We assess that over the next year Meloni will keep Italy engaged in the international coalition against Russia, both economically and militarily, despite low domestic approval for supporting Ukraine. Although Meloni’s coalition won a mandate from the public, there are still domestic challenges ahead regarding her Ukraine policy. Italians are the least likely amongst Europeans to blame Russia for the war, and the Italian public is divided on sending weapons to Ukraine. As winter approaches, public anger about the cost of living, which has risen due to sanctions on Russia, will be an important area to watch as Meloni leads her young administration. Meloni will likely have to maneuver around these issues to avoid adverse political consequences.
Meloni will likely look to match other European nations’ tranches of machine guns, anti-tank weapons, MANPADS, ammunition, and artillery to Ukraine. To date, Italy has supplied over $150 million worth of weapons and munitions to Ukraine. However, around half of Italians polled do not support sending weapons to Ukraine. Meloni’s government will likely have to work to protect weapons shipments from being linked to cost-of-living increases if they hope to avoid political backlash. (12, 13)
• The cost of living continues to rank at the top of voters’ issues in Italy. With Russia supplying 40% of Italy’s gas, immediate solutions may prove difficult to find. Meloni’s government is likely to have to provide some economic relief, such as tax cuts, to shield sanctions from domestic criticism and prevent them from becoming a political albatross. (7, 14)
• An informal meeting of E.U. leaders are set for 7 October 2022 in Prague, with energy prices expected to be a major point of discussion during the meeting. (14)
Sources
(1) Harlan, Chico, and Stefano Pitrelli. “Italy's Mario Draghi Resigns; New Elections Are Set for September.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 21 July 2022, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/20/italy-mario-draghi-senate-speech government/.
(2) D'Emilio, Frances, et al. “Giorgia Meloni's Far-Right Coalition Wins Italy's Election.” Time, Time, 26 Sept. 2022, https://time.com/6216624/italy-elects-far-right-giorgia-meloni/.
(3) Carbonaro, Giulia. “What Italy's Election Results Tell Us about the Country and Its Future.” Euronews, 26 Sept. 2022, https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/26/what-italys election-results-tell-us-about-the-country-and-its-future.
(4) “Italy PD Leader to Step down after Election Defeat.” Euronews, 27 Sept. 2022, https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/27/italy-election-pd.
(5) Decode39. “Meet the Real Giorgia Meloni: Pro Ukraine, US and West.” Decode39, 23 July 2022, https://decode39.com/3839/meet-giorgia-meloni/.
(6) Person, and Francesco Zecchini. “Italy's Meloni Warns of Broader Risks Posed by Ukraine Conflict.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 4 Sept. 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italys-meloni-warns-broader risks-posed-by-ukraine-conflict-2022-09-04/.;
(7) Person. “Explainer: Rightist Alliance Set for Italian Election Victory.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 13 Sept. 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/rightist-alliance-set-italian-election-victory-2022- 09-13/.
(8) Speciale, Alessandro, et al. “Meloni Says She'll Keep Italy on Draghi's Course on Russia, Debt.” Bloomberg.com, Bloomberg, 4 Sept. 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-04/meloni says-she-ll-keep-italy-on-draghi-s-course-on-russia-debt?leadSource=uverify+wall.
(9) Giuffrida, Angela. “Cracks Show over Russia as Italy's Far-Right Alliance Heads for Election Win.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 9 Sept. 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/09/cracks-show-in-meloni-salvini-alliance over-russia-sanctions-italy.
(10) “Watch: 'See What Your Friend Putin Has Done,' Salvini Told in Poland.” Euronews, 9 Mar. 2022, https://www.euronews.com/2022/03/09/see-what your-friend-putin-has-done-salvini-mocked-in-poland.
(11) Roonemaa, Holger, et al. “Exclusive: Russia Backs Europe's Far Right.” New Lines Magazine, 31 July 2022, https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/exclusive-russia-backs-europes-far-right/.
(12) Borsari, Federico. “Italy's Unwavering Support for Ukraine.” CEPA, 22 June 2022, https://cepa.org/italys-unwavering-support-for-ukraine/.
(13) Quinn, Colm. “Will a New Italian Government Go Soft on Russia?” Foreign Policy, 22 July 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/italy-meloni-draghi-russia/.
(14) Jones, Gavin, and Giuseppe Fonte. “Energy, Taxes, Pensions First Challenges for Italy's Meloni.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 26 Sept. 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/energy-taxes-pensions-first-challenges-italys meloni-2022-09-26/.
(14) Krukowska, Ewa, et al. “EU Wary of Broad Gas Price Cap in Plan to TAME Energy Crisis.” Bloomberg.com, Bloomberg, 21 Sept. 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-21/eu-plans-new-measures-to-tame energy-markets-ease-gas-prices.
