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The University of Mississippi Center for Open Source Analysis is a student-run analysis group that works to publish monthly open source intelligence pieces on relevant national security issues.

COSA The University of Mississippi
China's Economic Foreign Policy: The Belt and Road Initiative
Oct 17

Oct 17 China's Economic Foreign Policy: The Belt and Road Initiative

Ole Miss COSA
China

Exploring the size, scope, and shape of China’s economic-based foreign policy project: The Belt and Road Initiative.

Sudan Explainer: Peace Talks Begin Amid Tensions
Oct 14

Oct 14 Sudan Explainer: Peace Talks Begin Amid Tensions

Ole Miss COSA
Middle East and North Africa

Sudan’s transitional government will be holding peace talks with the Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF) from October 14 to December 14.

Venezuela Crisis Report: China Edition
Oct 11

Oct 11 Venezuela Crisis Report: China Edition

Ole Miss COSA
Latin America

Investigating International Involvement in an Ongoing Crisis

Turkey: Syria Offensive Likely to Give Russia Opportunity to Expand Influence in the Middle East
Oct 11

Oct 11 Turkey: Syria Offensive Likely to Give Russia Opportunity to Expand Influence in the Middle East

Ole Miss COSA
Russia, Middle East and North Africa

Russia will likely utilize Turkey’s offensive on Syrian territory by attempting to initiate and mediate talks between Turkey, the Syrian government, and the Syrian Kurds as a way to gain geopolitical influence in the Middle East.

Iraq: Violent Protests Demand Change
Oct 9

Oct 9 Iraq: Violent Protests Demand Change

Ole Miss COSA
Middle East and North Africa
Argentina: Economic Instability Likely Due to Kirchner’s Policy Influence
Oct 7

Oct 7 Argentina: Economic Instability Likely Due to Kirchner’s Policy Influence

Ole Miss COSA
Latin America

Argentine presidential candidate Alberto Fernandez will likely be strongly influenced by running-mate Cristina Kirchner, likely resulting in economic instability associated with the financial sector fearing a return to control economics.

Russia: Ukraine Prisoner Exchange Likely to Encourage Future Peace Talks
Oct 2

Oct 2 Russia: Ukraine Prisoner Exchange Likely to Encourage Future Peace Talks

Ole Miss COSA
Russia

The Russian-Ukrainian prisoner exchange on September 7 will likely set the stage for future peace talks in an effort to end the war in Donbass.

Russia: Recent Prisoner Exchange Indicates Improved Relations with Ukraine
Oct 2

Oct 2 Russia: Recent Prisoner Exchange Indicates Improved Relations with Ukraine

Ole Miss COSA
Russia

Moscow and Kiev will likely participate in peace talks before the end of 2019 as President Putin and President Zelensky have recently expressed willingness and made tangible strides to normalize relations.

China: Likely to Monopolize Africa’s Technology Sector in Near Future
Sep 30

Sep 30 China: Likely to Monopolize Africa’s Technology Sector in Near Future

Ole Miss COSA
China

China is likely to continue forming partnerships with African countries in order to spread Chinese-backed AI surveillance equipment throughout the region.

Saudi Arabia: Direct Military Retaliation Against Iran Unlikely Following Oil Attacks
Sep 26

Sep 26 Saudi Arabia: Direct Military Retaliation Against Iran Unlikely Following Oil Attacks

Ole Miss COSA
Middle East and North Africa

Saudi Arabia is unlikely to directly retaliate militarily against Iran in response to the recent attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil facilities.

Venezuela Crisis Report: Russia Edition
Sep 25

Sep 25 Venezuela Crisis Report: Russia Edition

Ole Miss COSA
Latin America, Russia

Investigating International Involvement in an Ongoing Crisis

Russia: Suspension of INF Treaty Likely to Result in the Development and Installation of Ground-Based Intermediate Range Missiles by Russia
Apr 16

Apr 16 Russia: Suspension of INF Treaty Likely to Result in the Development and Installation of Ground-Based Intermediate Range Missiles by Russia

Ole Miss COSA
Russia

Russian suspension of the INF Treaty suggests Russia is likely to focus on the development of nuclear capable missile systems in order to limit NATO reactions to recent Russian territorial acquisitions.

Syria: Increased Iranian Operations in Eastern Syria Likely to Secure Land-Bridge and Circumvent International Sanctions
Apr 4

Apr 4 Syria: Increased Iranian Operations in Eastern Syria Likely to Secure Land-Bridge and Circumvent International Sanctions

Ole Miss COSA
Middle East and North Africa

Iran is likely to shift the focus of its Syrian influence-operations by redirecting its assets to rural eastern towns in Syria, which is likely in reaction to Russian gains, and if successful is almost certain to result in multiple key Iranian foreign policy victories.

China: Beijing's Position in EU Bolstered by Italy's Participation in Belt and Road Initiative
Apr 4

Apr 4 China: Beijing's Position in EU Bolstered by Italy's Participation in Belt and Road Initiative

Ole Miss COSA
China

Chinese investment in Italy has an even chance of making Italy economically dependent on China, which is likely to influence Italy to support and defend China in the European Union.

Venezuela: Russian Support Critical to Maduro Regime
Mar 8

Mar 8 Venezuela: Russian Support Critical to Maduro Regime

Ole Miss COSA
Latin America

Russian economic and diplomatic support will likely ensure Maduro retains power through April 30, 2019, while simultaneously impeding opposition efforts to usurp the regime.

Syria Update:  U.S. Withdrawal Likely to Lead to Increased Islamist Insurgency
Mar 1

Mar 1 Syria Update: U.S. Withdrawal Likely to Lead to Increased Islamist Insurgency

Ole Miss COSA
Middle East and North Africa

Extremist opposition rebel groups are likely to capitalize on the newly distracted and thinned out SDF, Regime, Turkish, Russian, and Iranian forces by expanding their sphere of influence outside of Idlib as the United States begins its disengagement.

Russia: Political Impact of S-400 Exports Abroad on US Interests
Nov 5

Nov 5 Russia: Political Impact of S-400 Exports Abroad on US Interests

Ole Miss COSA
Russia

Russia’s sales of the S-400 defense system are likely to pose a strategic threat to the United States and its allies because the respective sales expand economic and trade opportunities for Russia, which is likely to solidify Russia’s relations with various countries while undermining relations with the United States.

 

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